Less than a month after their last La Liga encounter on February 8, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will meet again on Tuesday night at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu for the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16. The Madrid derby is never just another match; besides being one of the most anticipated city rivalries in world football, it has often been decisive in national and international tournaments. In fact, over the last twelve editions of the UEFA Champions League, these two sides have faced each other twice in the final (2013/14 and 2015/16), once in the quarter-finals (2014/15), and once in the semi-finals (2016/17), with Real Madrid always coming out on top. Both Carlo Ancelotti's and Diego Simeone's teams are currently battling for the La Liga title in an exciting three-way race that includes Barcelona, with the three clubs alternating at the top of the standings due to each other's occasional missteps. Moreover, if they manage to eliminate Real Sociedad and Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-finals, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid could also meet in the Copa del Rey final. This Champions League Round of 16 first leg promises to deliver a thrilling match filled with intensity, drama, and top-level football.

Real Madrid's Shape and Key Statistics

In their latest La Liga match, Real Madrid suffered a surprising defeat against Real Betis, with former Madrid player Isco deciding the match. This was Los Blancos' fourth league defeat, allowing Atletico Madrid to overtake them in the standings.

But how has Real Madrid performed in Europe so far? Their campaign has been inconsistent in the league-phase format, finishing 11th overall (5 wins, 3 losses), but they were flawless in the Champions League playoffs, eliminating Manchester City with a 2-3 away win and a 3-1 victory at home.

Against the English champions, Carlo Ancelotti’s squad once again demonstrated their ability to perform under pressure. It’s no coincidence that Real Madrid has won 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches, securing both their playoff qualification and their place in the Round of 16.

Atletico Madrid's Shape and Key Statistics

Atletico Madrid is enjoying a strong season, meeting expectations by remaining competitive on all fronts. Diego Simeone’s side, currently second in La Liga with just a one-point gap behind Barcelona, reached the Round of 16 without having to play the Champions League playoffs.

They secured this by finishing 5th in the league-phase standings with an almost perfect record: 6 wins and 2 losses, including an impressive five-game winning streak in their last five group-stage matches. In this Champions League campaign, Atletico Madrid has averaged 2.5 goals per game while conceding 1.5 goals per match.

Notably, Atletico Madrid has won their last three away games in the Champions League: 2-1 against PSG, 6-0 against Sparta Prague, and 4-1 against RB Salzburg. 

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Prediction & Tactical Overview

The tactical battle in this match will likely see Real Madrid controlling possession and pressing hard to capitalize on their home advantage ahead of the second leg at Estadio Metropolitano.

All eyes will be on Kylian Mbappe, who has already netted four goals in the playoff tie against Manchester City. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid will aim to contain the home side’s attacks and exploit counterattacks, using the pace and creativity of Julian Alvarez, who is chasing his 22nd goal of the season.

The two teams have already met twice this season, with both matches ending 1-1. Additionally, in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head meetings, both teams have found the back of the net.

Based on historical data and statistical analysis, the BetMines algorithm predicts that both teams will score in this first-leg encounter.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 59%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 41%

Predicted Lineups Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

REAL MADRID (4-3-3): Courtois; Lucas Vazquez, Rudiger, Alaba, Mendy; Modric, Tchouameni, Brahim Diaz; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinicius Junior. Coach: Ancelotti

ATLETICO MADRID (4-4-2): Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Javi Galan; G. Simeone, De Paul, Llorente, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez. Coach: Simeone