After the painful defeat in the Copa del Rey final against Barcelona, Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid dive back into La Liga with one clear objective: beat Celta Vigo and head into El Clasico on Sunday, May 11, in the best possible shape. Unlike Barcelona, Los Blancos are already out of the UEFA Champions League and have won their last three league matches all by the same scoreline: 1-0, each time with goals from midfielders. This highlights both the defensive solidity Real Madrid have managed to maintain despite the absence of all their starting defenders, and the lack of contribution from their forwards — especially Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo, who haven’t scored in La Liga since early April and January, respectively. The four-point gap from Barça is not insurmountable, but it’s clear that the only way Real Madrid can catch up is by winning every match from now until the end of the season, hoping to overtake their rivals — who have already claimed both the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Super Cup from them this season — in next week’s direct showdown. Despite history favoring the home side, Celta Vigo arrive at the Santiago Bernabéu sitting seventh in the table and in full contention for a UEFA Europa League spot. Claudio Giraldez’s side are coming off a 3-0 win over Villarreal, and in the previous round, they were moments away from snatching an incredible win at Barcelona’s Camp Nou, only to fall in the final minutes — the same fate that befell Real Madrid just a week earlier.

Real Madrid Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Madrid are on a three-match winning streak in La Liga, with all victories (against Alavés, Athletic Club, and Getafe) ending 1-0. However, they are coming off a heartbreaking 3-2 extra-time loss to Barcelona in the Copa del Rey final. In their last five matches in all competitions, Los Blancos have picked up 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game.

In La Liga, Ancelotti’s side are averaging 2 goals scored per match (the second-best attack), while conceding just 0.94. At home in the Santiago Bernabéu, they have earned 40 of their 72 total points with 13 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They've lost only one of their last 10 home league matches — a 2-1 defeat to Valencia on April 5 — while averaging 2.37 goals per game in those fixtures.

Celta Vigo Recent Form and Key Stats

Celta Vigo have been inconsistent in recent weeks, recording 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in their last five matches. Their recent 3-0 victory over Villarreal helped them reach 46 points and retain seventh place, holding off Osasuna who trail by just two points.

The Sky Blues are a balanced side, with 50 goals scored and 49 conceded in La Liga (averaging 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded per game). Away from home, they’ve shown resilience, losing only to Barcelona in their last five road games. Besides that loss, they secured wins against Mallorca and Valladolid and earned draws against Atlético Madrid and Girona.

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Prediction and Tactical Overview

As has often been the case this season, Real Madrid go into this Matchday 34 clash with several absences in defense. Ancelotti will be without Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, David Alaba, Dani Carvajal, and Éder Militão — forcing the Italian manager to come up with alternative solutions that may weaken their recent defensive solidity (3 consecutive clean sheets in La Liga).

Celta Vigo, meanwhile, are at near full strength, with only Carl Starfelt and Jones El-Abdellaoui unavailable. Their attack is currently in top form, spearheaded by Borja Iglesias, who has scored 4 goals in the last two matches, including a hat-trick at Camp Nou.

These two sides have already met twice this season, with Real Madrid winning both encounters: 2-1 in the reverse league fixture and 5-2 after extra time in the Copa del Rey round of 16. In recent years, Los Blancos have often handed out heavy defeats to Celta Vigo, such as the 4-0 win in March 2024, the 5-2 in September 2021, and the 6-0 in May 2018.

Given Real Madrid’s high-scoring average at home and the excellent form of Celta’s attack, the BetMines algorithm predicts for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo predict a match with at least three total goals.

• BetMines algorithm prediction for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo predicts a match with Over 2.5 goals at 69%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo predicts a match with Under 2.5 goals at 31%

Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo Predicted Lineups

REAL MADRID (4-3-1-2): Courtois; Vazquez, Asencio, Tchouameni, F Garcia; Valverde, Ceballos, Modric; Bellingham; Vinicius, Mbappe. Coach: Carlo Ancelotti

CELTA VIGO (3-4-3): Guaita; Lago, Dominguez, Alonso; Alvarez, Rodriguez, Moriba, Mingueza; F Lopez, Iglesias, Gonzalez. Coach: Claudio Giraldez