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Prediction published on Oct 20, 2025 4:48 PM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Oct 20, 2025 5:09 PM
In the iconic setting of the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, on Wednesday, October 22, one of the big matches of the UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 will take place, featuring Real Madrid hosting Juventus. The Spanish side have started the season in great form, currently sitting at the top of La Liga with a two-point lead over Barcelona and maintaining a perfect record after two rounds in the Champions League. A victory here would almost secure their qualification for the Round of 16, while also complicating Juventus’ plans as they look to climb up the group standings. Igor Tudor’s team, currently seventh in Serie A, haven’t won a match in over a month — neither domestically nor in Europe — and travel to Madrid after collecting just two points from their first two UCL games. A poor return that leaves the Italians under pressure: another defeat could significantly jeopardize their chances of finishing in the top two. Despite being only Matchday 3, this clash already feels like a key turning point, especially for the visitors, who are desperate for a result to avoid deepening their early-season struggles.
Real Madrid come into this match on the back of three consecutive wins in all competitions, the latest being a 0-1 away victory over Getafe thanks to a late goal from Kylian Mbappé. With that result, Xabi Alonso’s men maintained their position at the top of La Liga, holding a two-point advantage over Barcelona.
Over their last five matches, Los Blancos have been in strong form, recording four wins and just one loss, averaging 3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The Merengues boast one of the most prolific attacks in Europe, combined with a solid defense, having conceded only one goal in their last three outings.
Mbappé and company remain perfect in this season’s Champions League after beating Olympique Marseille 2-1 and Kairat Almaty 0-5. Despite being eliminated in last year’s quarter-finals, the Spanish giants have stayed unbeaten in 18 of their last 20 home matches in the top European competition.
It’s a very delicate moment for Juventus. Their 2-0 defeat to Como marked their sixth straight game without a win across all competitions. After seven rounds of Serie A, the Bianconeri sit seventh in the table, four points behind leaders AC Milan.
Their recent form is worrying: across their last five games, Juventus have drawn four and lost one, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. The attack has been underperforming, despite the summer arrivals of forwards such as Jonathan David and Loïs Openda. Defensively, the team has struggled, also due to the serious injury suffered by Gleison Bremer, a key pillar of their backline.
So far, Igor Tudor’s men have earned just two points in this edition of the Champions League, drawing both matches — 4-4 against Borussia Dortmund and 2-2 against Villarreal. The Italian side are now chasing their first international win of the 2025/26 season.
The Real Madrid vs Juventus prediction strongly favors the home side, who have had a much better start to the season compared to their opponents.
Real Madrid’s win probability stands at 59%, Juventus’ at 18%, while a draw (the “X” sign) is estimated at 23%.
Compared to last season, Xabi Alonso’s team seems to have regained defensive stability, thanks to the return of Éder Militão — who has recovered from a long-term injury — and the addition of Dean Huijsen, a former Juventus player, though his participation in this match remains doubtful due to injury concerns.
Up front, Kylian Mbappé continues to shine, already scoring 15 goals this season, while Vinícius Jr. also appears to have rediscovered his best form under Alonso after a somewhat inconsistent campaign last year.
On the Juventus side, Igor Tudor will be without injured defenders Gleison Bremer and Edon Zhegrova. In attack, there’s an ongoing battle for the starting striker position between Dušan Vlahović and Jonathan David, while Kenan Yildiz and Francisco Conceição are expected to start behind the main forward.
REAL MADRID (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Valverde, Militão, Asencio, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Mastantuono, Güler, Vinícius Jr.; Mbappé. Coach: Alonso
JUVENTUS (3-4-2-1): Di Gregorio; Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly; João Mário, Thuram, Locatelli, Cambiaso; Yildiz, Conceição; David. Coach: Tudor
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Real Madrid
Juventus
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
4
6
2.5
6
4
9
1
3.5
9
1
9
1
4.5
9
1
10
0