On Tuesday, August 19, Real Madrid officially opens the 2025/26 season in the late fixture of LaLiga’s Matchday 1, hosting Osasuna at the Santiago Bernabéu. This match marks the beginning of a new cycle for Los Blancos, coming off a trophyless year and ready to relaunch on all fronts. The Madrid club has chosen to hand the bench to Xabi Alonso, the mastermind behind Bayer Leverkusen’s success two seasons ago. The new coach has inherited a deeply renewed and younger squad: this summer saw the arrival of talents such as Dean Huijsen, Álvaro Carreras, and Franco Mastantuono, while two long-time pillars, Luka Modric and Lucas Vázquez, departed. Alonso’s mission is to open a cycle built on freshness, quality, and intensity, bringing back key figures such as Vinícius Jr and Rodrygo, both eager to redeem themselves after an underwhelming season. The goal is clear: fight for LaLiga again, wresting the title away from Barcelona, and go as far as possible in the Champions League after last season’s quarterfinal exit. On the other side, Osasuna comes to Madrid with a renewed technical project: after finishing 9th last season, the club handed the reins to Alessio Lisci, who impressed with Mirandés in LaLiga 2. The transfer market hasn’t brought major signings yet, but the confirmation of two pillars — Budimir (21 goals last season) and young talent Ozoro, already targeted by several top clubs — provides a solid foundation to build on. For the Navarrese, debuting at the Bernabéu is undoubtedly one of the toughest away trips of the season: compactness and courage will be needed to stop a Real Madrid determined to start strong and send a clear message to Barcelona and Atlético Madrid, their two main rivals for the title.

Real Madrid's recent form and key stats

After ending last season on July 9 with elimination in the FIFA Club World Cup semifinal at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain, Real Madrid had little time to prepare for the new campaign. Xabi Alonso’s side played only one preseason friendly, where they beat Austrian side Tirol 4-0 thanks to goals from Militao, Mbappé (2), and Rodrygo.

At home, Real Madrid is unbeaten in eight matches. In last season’s LaLiga, they had the second-best attack in the league behind Barcelona with 78 goals, averaging 2.05 goals per game. Defensively, however, injuries took their toll, with the team conceding exactly one goal per match.

Osasuna's recent form and key stats

Osasuna wrapped up their preseason with two positive results, first beating Mirandés 3-0 and then drawing 2-2 against Freiburg. The standout performer was striker Raul Garcia, who scored three goals across those games. Ozoro, the talented playmaker, and Budimir, the team’s symbol and striker, also found the net.

During LaLiga 2024/25, which they finished just shy of European places, Osasuna struggled in front of goal, averaging 1.26 goals per game. Defensively, things didn’t go much better, as they conceded 52 goals in 38 matches — an average of 1.37 per game, the worst defensive record among teams in the upper half of the table.

Real Madrid vs Osasuna prediction and tactical overview

Despite the number of new faces, starting with the coach, Real Madrid is the clear favorite to win this Matchday 1 fixture against Osasuna. Los Blancos want to start strong, claim the first three points of the season, and immediately respond to Barcelona, who opened with a 3-0 victory at Mallorca.

The feeling is that Alonso’s men could repeat what they did in their last two home games against Osasuna, both ending 4-0. The Spanish coach will be without two key players: Rudiger (suspended) and Bellingham (still injured). However, he can rely on Vinícius Jr, eager for redemption after a disappointing season, and above all on Kylian Mbappé, last season’s LaLiga top scorer.

But there’s more. Beyond the home win, the BetMines algorithm also leans toward a match where at least one team fails to score. Considering that Real Madrid are strong favorites to win, it is highly likely that Budimir and his teammates won’t get on the scoresheet — just as in seven of the last ten head-to-heads played in Madrid.

• Real Madrid vs Osasuna prediction from the BetMines algorithm: at least one team will fail to score (55%)
  
  
• Real Madrid vs Osasuna prediction from the BetMines algorithm: both teams will score (45%)

Predicted lineups Real Madrid vs Osasuna

REAL MADRID (4-3-3): Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Militao, Huijsen, Carreras; Guler, Tchouameni, Valverde; Brahim, Mbappé, Vinícius. Coach: Xabi Alonso

OSASUNA (4-3-3): Herrera; Rosier, Catena, Boyomo, Bretones; Torro, Moncayola, Oroz; K Barja, Budimir, M Gomez. Coach: Alessio Lisci