Real Oviedo took a crucial step toward the Segunda Division promotion playoff final last Saturday by defeating Almeria 2-1 at the Power Horse Stadium. Should they progress, the Asturians will face the winner of the other semifinal between Mirandes and Racing Santander. As expected, the first leg was tightly contested: Nacho Vidal opened the scoring in the 14th minute for Oviedo, but the hosts equalized just two minutes later through Arribas. It was Vidal again—remarkably a right-back—who sealed the win with a stoppage-time goal, bringing his tally to four goals in his last three games. Looking ahead to the return leg, Real Oviedo (chasing a return to La Liga after over 20 years) have the advantage of needing only a win or a draw to reach the final. In fact, even a narrow loss would suffice, as in the event of an aggregate draw, the higher-ranked team in the regular season advances. Oviedo finished third, while Almeria were sixth. Almeria now face a real uphill battle: they must win by at least two goals away from home. This task is made tougher by the absence of their top scorer Luis Suarez, away on international duty with Colombia, and their dismal away record—they haven’t won on the road since January. Despite these setbacks, Rubi’s men will fight to overturn the result, still hopeful of an immediate return to La Liga following last season’s relegation.

Real Oviedo Recent Form and Key Stats

With the first-leg win over Almeria, Real Oviedo recorded their fourth straight victory, following wins over Real Zaragoza, Tenerife, and Cadiz to close out the regular season. They’re currently unbeaten in 11 matches, with a strong record of 8 wins and 3 draws.

One of the standout players in recent weeks has been right-back Nacho Vidal, who has impressively scored 4 goals in his last 3 matches, including a brace against Almeria.

At home, Oviedo have been rock-solid this season: out of 21 home matches, they've earned 14 wins, 3 draws, and just 4 losses, averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game. They’re coming off five consecutive home wins, scoring 1.8 goals per match and keeping three clean sheets. Their last home defeat came back on March 2nd (1-2 vs Deportivo La Coruna).

Almeria Recent Form and Key Stats

The loss to Real Oviedo last weekend marked Almeria’s second defeat in their last five games—the previous one came on May 9th, a 2-1 loss at Cadiz. Between those defeats, they secured two wins (vs Racing Santander and Tenerife) and a goalless draw with Mirandes. That match against Oviedo also ended their streak of three consecutive clean sheets.

Almeria’s away form has been problematic all season. In the regular season, they managed only 6 away wins, with 5 draws and 10 defeats. They conceded 36 goals away from home, one of the highest in the division. Notably, they are winless in their last 9 away matches, with 7 losses and 2 draws.

Real Oviedo vs Almeria Prediction and Tactical Preview

Recent head-to-head records favor Real Oviedo, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 loss. This season, they’ve met three times: Oviedo won twice and the other ended in a draw. At the Carlos Tartiere Stadium, the home side has prevailed in the last two encounters (3-2 and 2-0). Almeria’s last win in Oviedo dates back to the 2020/21 season.

Given the first-leg result, Almeria need to win by at least two goals. Expect them to be aggressive from the start, controlling possession, but that approach could expose them to Oviedo’s dangerous counterattacks—especially considering Oviedo are unbeaten in their last six home games.

A major blow for the visitors is the absence of Luis Suarez, the Segunda Division’s top scorer with 27 goals, currently away with Colombia for World Cup qualifiers. Suarez had already scored three goals against Oviedo this season and was the key attacking threat for Rubi’s team.

While Almeria miss their top striker, Real Oviedo can rely on an in-form Nacho Vidal, who scored twice in the first leg, and Brazilian forward Alemao, who has 14 goals this season.

Considering Almeria’s poor away form and Oviedo’s home dominance, the prediction leans towards another win for Real Oviedo, who are well-positioned to reach the final and fight for promotion to La Liga, where they would face either Mirandes or Racing Santander.

• Real Oviedo vs Almeria prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 51%.
  
  
• Real Oviedo vs Almeria prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign X at 25%.
  
  
• Real Oviedo vs Almeria prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 2 at 23%.

Predicted Lineups Real Oviedo vs Almeria

REAL OVIEDO (4-2-3-1): Escandell; Vidal, Costas, Calvo, Alhassane; Sibo, Colombatto; Hassan, Seoane, Cazorla; Alemao. Coach: Veljko Paunovic

ALMERIA (4-2-3-1): Martinez; Pozo, Chumi, Gonzalez, Centelles; Lopy, Melero; Puigmal, Arribas, Melamed; Baptistao. Coach: Rubi