The second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final between Real Sociedad and Athletic Club promises to be a thrilling Basque derby. The 0-1 win secured by the San Sebastián side in the first leg at San Mamés gives them a narrow advantage, but the tie is far from over. Both teams are level on points in the league, and with a place in the final at stake, the intensity at Anoeta will be sky-high. The hosts will aim to capitalise on their home form, while the visitors will rely on their cup pedigree to turn things around.

Real Sociedad’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Real Sociedad approach this decisive match in excellent shape. Their recent 1-0 away win against Mallorca extended a strong run of performances, with three victories, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions. In the Copa del Rey, their record is particularly impressive: five wins, one draw and no losses, averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game. The team has found the net in each of their last 15 matches, showing consistent attacking efficiency.

At home, the Donostiarra side have been formidable. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last ten home fixtures, and both teams have scored in all of them. This combination of offensive power and occasional defensive openness makes their matches entertaining and unpredictable. Furthermore, Real Sociedad have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 Copa del Rey games, underlining their reliability in knockout competitions.

Under the guidance of their current coach, the team has rediscovered its rhythm, remaining unbeaten at home since mid-December. The squad’s confidence is high, and the supporters at Anoeta will expect another strong performance to secure a place in the final. The first-leg victory gives them a psychological edge, but the focus remains on winning again rather than defending the narrow lead.

Athletic Club’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Athletic Club arrive in San Sebastián knowing that they must score at least once to stay alive in the competition. Their recent 1-1 draw against Rayo Vallecano showed both resilience and frustration, as they struggled to convert dominance into goals. Over their last five matches, the Bilbao side have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In the Copa del Rey, however, their campaign has been less convincing, with one win, two draws and one loss so far.

Defensively, the team has shown some vulnerability, having conceded at least one goal in each of their last 15 matches. Despite this, they have maintained composure in the first halves of away games, avoiding defeat before the break in their last 13 Copa del Rey trips. However, they have rarely taken the lead early, failing to win at half time in 20 of their last 21 away fixtures. This pattern suggests that Athletic often grow into games rather than starting strongly.

Historically, the club’s connection with the Copa del Rey is deep and proud. They have reached three of the last six finals, lifting the trophy once. That experience could prove vital in a high-pressure environment like this. The challenge will be to find the right balance between attacking ambition and defensive stability, as conceding early could make their task nearly impossible.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

Recent meetings between these two Basque rivals have been closely contested. In their last five encounters, Real Sociedad have won twice, drawn twice and lost once, scoring an average of 1.0 goal per match and conceding 0.8. The first leg ended 0-1 in favour of the Donostiarra side, a result that reflects the fine margins between them. The last league clash also went Real Sociedad’s way, a 3-2 victory that showcased their attacking flair.

Given the attacking trends of both teams, another open and competitive match is expected. Real Sociedad’s home games have consistently produced goals, while Athletic’s need to chase the result could lead to an end-to-end battle. Both sides have shown a tendency to score in the second half, with over 0.5 goals after the break in 20 of Real Sociedad’s last 22 matches and in each of Athletic’s last 11. This suggests that the decisive moments could once again come late in the game.

Real Sociedad’s confidence, combined with their home advantage and recent consistency, makes them slight favourites. However, Athletic’s fighting spirit and cup experience ensure that the tie remains finely balanced. The visitors will likely press high and look for quick transitions, while the hosts will aim to control possession and exploit spaces behind the defense.

Probable Lineups

REAL SOCIEDAD: Remiro; Sergio Gómez, Martín, Caleta-Car, Aramburu; Gorrotxategi, Turrientes; Zakharyan, Soler, Guedes; Mikel Oyarzabal.
ATHLETIC CLUB: Unai Simón; Yuri (doubt), Laporte, Vivian, Lekue; Jauregizar, Rego; Berenguer, Sancet, Iñaki Williams; Guruzeta.

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club Prediction and Final Analysis

Everything points to a tense and emotional second leg in San Sebastián. Real Sociedad have been in excellent form, particularly at home, and their attacking consistency gives them an edge. Athletic Club will not go down without a fight, but their defensive record and the need to overturn a deficit make their task difficult. The hosts’ ability to score in every recent match and their unbeaten home streak suggest that they are well positioned to reach the final.

Considering the statistical trends, both teams are likely to find the net, and the match could feature goals in both halves. Real Sociedad’s attacking rhythm and Athletic’s determination to respond should produce another entertaining Basque derby.

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 45% probability.