The 24th round of Ligue 1 brings an exciting clash between Stade Rennais and Toulouse FC, scheduled for Saturday at 17:00. Both sides are still in the race for European qualification, and this encounter at Roazhon Park could prove decisive for their ambitions. Rennes approach the match in high spirits after back-to-back victories that have reignited their hopes of breaking into the top four. Toulouse, on the other hand, are struggling to find consistency, having gone four league games without a win. With only six points separating them, this fixture promises to be a key moment in their respective seasons.

Rennes’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Rennes have rediscovered their rhythm under new coach Franck Haise, who has guided the team to two consecutive wins, including a convincing 0-3 victory over Auxerre on February 22, 2026. That result lifted them to sixth place in Ligue 1, just three points off the top four. The team’s recent performances suggest a renewed sense of confidence and attacking intent. Over their last five league matches, Rennes have recorded two wins, no draws, and three defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game.

Across the season, Rennes have achieved a record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. Their attacking play has been particularly effective in recent weeks, with over 1.5 total goals scored in each of their last 12 Ligue 1 fixtures. Moreover, goals have frequently arrived after the break — over 0.5 goals in the second half have been recorded in 34 of their last 37 matches in all competitions, and in 31 of their last 34 league games.

Individually, several players have stepped up at the right time. Goalkeeper Brice Samba has regained his place and delivered standout performances, including a clean sheet against Auxerre. In midfield, Mahdi Camara impressed with a brace in Haise’s debut match, while forward Estéban Lepaul has been in lethal form, scoring in each of the last three Ligue 1 rounds. His current streak makes him one of the key threats for the home side heading into this encounter.

Toulouse’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Toulouse FC have endured a more challenging spell in recent weeks. Despite sitting in a respectable tenth place, they have failed to win any of their last four league matches. Their most recent outing ended in a 1-1 draw against Paris on February 21, 2026. In their last five Ligue 1 fixtures, Toulouse have managed one win, two draws, and two defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their season record stands at 8 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

While Toulouse remain competitive, their inability to keep clean sheets has been a recurring issue. The team’s defensive line, led by Charlie Cresswell, will need to be at its best to contain Rennes’ in-form attack. In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr. continues to play a pivotal role, while forwards Santiago Hidalgo and Yann Gboho will look to exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts. However, the absence of several key players — including Álex Domínguez, Abu Francis, Aron Donnum, and Rafik Messali — could limit their options. Additionally, Rasmus Nicolaisen, Frank Magri, and Emersonn remain doubtful for the trip.

Despite these challenges, Toulouse have shown resilience throughout the season. Their ability to stay compact and strike on the counter could be crucial, especially against a Rennes side that tends to dominate possession at home. The last head-to-head meeting between the two teams ended in a 2-2 draw on October 29, 2025, and overall, Rennes have struggled in recent encounters, with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats in their last five meetings, scoring an average of 0.8 goals while conceding 1.6.

Match Analysis and Tactical Overview

This fixture brings together two teams with contrasting dynamics. Rennes are on an upward trajectory, boosted by a new managerial approach and a rejuvenated attack, while Toulouse are looking to halt a negative run and regain momentum. The home side’s recent scoring form, combined with their tendency to produce lively second halves, suggests that goals could once again be on the cards. Both teams have seen the “Both Teams To Score” market land in two of their last three Ligue 1 matches, reinforcing the expectation of an open contest.

For Rennes, maintaining their current intensity will be key. Their pressing game and quick transitions have been effective under Haise, and with Lepaul in fine form, they have the firepower to trouble any defense. Toulouse, meanwhile, will rely on discipline and efficiency in front of goal to keep their European hopes alive. Given the statistical trends and recent performances, this match could deliver another entertaining chapter in their rivalry.

Rennes vs Toulouse Prediction

According to BetMines data, the most likely outcome for this Ligue 1 clash is a Rennes win (1) with a 43% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 25%, while an Away win (2) for Toulouse stands at 31%. Additionally, the Both Teams To Score – Yes option holds a 56% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is expected with a 53% chance. Considering Rennes’ attacking momentum and Toulouse’s defensive vulnerabilities, the home side appear well-positioned to claim another important victory.

Rennes vs Toulouse prediction by BetMines: Home Win (1) with 43% probability.