Republic of Ireland and Israel meet on Sunday, October 4, in matchday four of UEFA Nations League Group B3. Although Ireland are the designated hosts, the fixture will take place at TSC Arena in Bačka Topola, Serbia, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. Ireland enter the game third in the group with four points from three matches, just outside second place on goal difference. Fourth-placed Israel are three points behind and still looking for their first win of this Nations League campaign. A 3-0 victory over Israel in their previous meeting gives Ireland an encouraging recent result to draw on, but the neutral setting makes this a different test from a conventional home fixture.

Republic of Ireland's Recent Form and Key Stats

Republic of Ireland began their Group B3 campaign with a defeat before taking four points from their next two games. They beat Israel 3-0 at a neutral venue on September 27, then drew 2-2 with Austria on October 1. That sequence has left them with one win, one draw and one loss in the group, and another positive result would strengthen their attempt to move into the top two.

Across their last five matches, Ireland have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat. They have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over that stretch. Their Nations League averages stand at 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, although the 2-2 draw with Austria was less controlled defensively than the preceding victory over Israel.

Ireland also have five wins from their last nine Nations League matches. Their head-to-head record against Israel reads one win and two draws, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across those meetings. The latest result, a three-goal victory, is the clearest point in Ireland's favour ahead of the rematch. At the same time, the fact that two of the three meetings ended level is a reason not to treat another win as automatic.

Two of Ireland's last ten Nations League home matches ended without a goal from either team. That figure offers some background on their results, but this match is being played in Serbia rather than at Ireland's usual home venue. Their recent group performances, particularly the win over Israel followed by a draw against Austria, provide a more direct guide to the current campaign.

Israel's Recent Form and Key Stats

Israel arrive in fourth place after opening their Nations League campaign with two defeats and a draw. They lost 3-1 away to Austria and 3-0 to Ireland before drawing 0-0 with Kosovo on October 1. The goalless result ended the run of defeats, but Israel remain without a victory after three Group B3 fixtures.

Their campaign averages underline the difficulty they have had at both ends of the pitch: 0.3 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Across their last five games in all competitions, Israel have one win, two draws and two defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. They have also lost five of their last ten matches, winning twice in that period.

Israel's draw with Kosovo showed they can avoid conceding, yet it did not resolve their shortage of goals in this Nations League cycle. Their next challenge is against a side that held them scoreless in the previous meeting. To improve on that 3-0 defeat, Israel will need a more productive attacking performance while limiting the opportunities that Ireland converted last time.

There have been no goals in two of Israel's last ten Nations League matches. Separately, at least one goal was scored before half-time in 18 of their last 20 away matches. That early-goal pattern is notable, though the neutral location of this fixture means it should not be treated as a straightforward away-game precedent.

Republic of Ireland vs Israel Match Analysis

The contrast in Group B3 form gives Republic of Ireland the stronger case going into this match. They have collected four points to Israel's one, scored three times against them in the most recent head-to-head, and followed that result with a draw against Austria. Israel, by comparison, have scored just once across their first three group games and have yet to turn a Nations League performance into a win.

The 2-2 draw with Austria also shows that Ireland cannot rely solely on their earlier clean sheet against Israel. Israel's recent 0-0 with Kosovo points to a potentially tighter contest than the previous meeting, even if their scoring record leaves them with work to do. The head-to-head history adds a similar note of caution: Ireland are unbeaten in three meetings, but two finished as draws.

For this Republic of Ireland vs Israel preview, the decisive question is whether Ireland can repeat enough of their September performance to turn their group advantage into another victory. Their recent results and Israel's winless start support that possibility, while the neutral venue and the teams' two previous draws keep the outcome open. The supplied win probabilities put Ireland at 48%, a draw at 24% and Israel at 28%.

Republic of Ireland vs Israel prediction from BetMines: Republic of Ireland win (1) with 48% probability.