On Sunday, May 18, at the Stadio Olimpico, Roma and AC Milan face off in Matchday 37 of Serie A. Both teams are eager to bounce back and are desperate for points to keep their European hopes alive. The hosts are aiming for a Champions League spot, a competition they haven’t featured in since the 2018/19 season. The fourth place—final qualifying position for the UCL—is just one point away. Therefore, Ranieri’s men must win against both Milan and Torino, hoping Juventus and Lazio (currently tied on points but behind due to head-to-head results) slip up. AC Milan return to the Olimpico just days after losing the Coppa Italia final to Bologna, a defeat that cost them a second trophy this season after the Italian Super Cup and also jeopardized their chances of qualifying for the Europa League regardless of league position. Thanks to recent positive results in Serie A, the Rossoneri sit eighth—only three points behind Roma—and, at least on paper, still have a shot at European qualification. No matter the final result, this Matchday 37 clash looks decisive in determining the true European ambitions of both sides.

Roma's Recent Form and Key Stats

Roma have recently recorded three 1-0 wins over Hellas Verona, Inter Milan, and Fiorentina, a 1-1 draw in the derby against Lazio, and a 2-1 defeat to Atalanta in Matchday 36. Despite the decent results, Ranieri's attack has struggled, averaging just one goal per game over their last five matches. However, defensively, the Giallorossi have been solid, conceding only 0.6 goals on average in the same period.

Roma are unbeaten at home in 16 consecutive matches across all competitions, with a record of 14 wins and 2 draws. Their last home loss was on December 2—against Atalanta, again—this time 0-2.

At the Olimpico this season, Claudio Ranieri’s side have collected 38 of their 63 total points, thanks to 12 wins and 2 draws. Roma also rank second in Serie A for most home goals (34 in 18 matches) and for fewest goals conceded at home (14), behind only league leaders Napoli.

AC Milan's Recent Form and Key Stats

AC Milan are coming off a 1-0 defeat to Bologna that knocked them out of the Coppa Italia and severely damaged their direct qualification chances for the Europa League.

In the league, however, Conceicao’s team have won three matches in a row: 0-2 at Venezia, 1-2 at Genoa, and 3-1 at home against Bologna in the most recent round. Overall, they’ve lost just one of their last six Serie A matches: a 0-1 home defeat to Atalanta on April 20.

Away from home, Milan have shown similar performance levels as they have at San Siro: 29 points earned on the road (9 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses) compared to 31 at home. Between April and May, Milan have won all four of their away matches, including a Coppa Italia win over Inter Milan, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one. Conceicao’s side are the third-best away team in Serie A in terms of goals scored (30 in 18 away games).

Roma vs AC Milan Prediction and Tactical Preview

After a setback in Bergamo, Roma will be eager to bounce back with a home win to keep their Champions League hopes alive. The Giallorossi haven’t lost at the Olimpico since December 2024, and in the new year they’ve proven to be a tough and organized side, especially on home turf.

An emotional factor could also come into play: this might be Claudio Ranieri’s final home game as Roma head coach, a Roman and lifelong Roma fan, before their season-ending trip to Torino. That could provide an extra boost for the players, who will be motivated to secure a vital win for their manager.

As for AC Milan, there are questions surrounding the psychological impact of the recent Coppa Italia final defeat, as well as their true motivation to fight for a UEFA Europa Conference League spot, which remains two points away. That said, Milan have alternated between excellent and poor performances this season and could still pose a threat to Roma and steal a point at the Olimpico.

Given Roma’s greater motivation and home form, the Roma vs AC Milan prediction for Serie A Matchday 37, generated by the BetMines algorithm, leans towards a home win or draw – Double Chance 1X.

• Roma v AC Milan prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts Double Chance 1X at 71%.
  
  
• Roma v AC Milan prediction from the BetMines algorithm predicts 2 at 29%.

Predicted Lineups Roma vs AC Milan

ROMA (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Koné, Cristante, Angelino; Soulé, Shomurodov; Dovbyk. Coach: Claudio Ranieri

AC MILAN (3-4-2-1): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernandez; Pulisic, Leao; Gimenez. Coach: Sergio Conceicao