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Prediction published on Sep 3, 2026 7:13 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Sep 3, 2026 7:13 PM
Roma welcome Atalanta to the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday, September 5, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. This Serie A fixture brings together two teams that have collected maximum points from their opening two league matches. Roma are first in the rankings supplied for this contest, while Atalanta are fifth. The occasion also carries personal significance for Roma coach Gasperini, who faces his former club, while former Atalanta captain De Roon recently moved to Roma. Both sides enter the game unbeaten across their last three outings in all competitions, but their early results have followed different patterns: Roma have combined prolific scoring with two league clean sheets, whereas Atalanta have relied on a controlled approach and an excellent recent defensive record.
Roma have made an emphatic start to their Serie A campaign, recording two wins from two while averaging 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per league match. After opening with a 4-0 victory over Fiorentina, they defeated Lecce 4-0 away on August 31. Those performances have created immediate momentum ahead of their first major test of the season.
Malen has been central to that explosive beginning, scoring five times in the opening two league rounds. Dybala has also been described as being in strong form, while the arrivals of Castro and De Roon, together with the confirmation of Koné, have increased the options available to Gasperini. Mora scored in the second round and provides another attacking alternative alongside Soulé and Dybala.
Roma's broader five-match record stands at three wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their scoring consistency extends much further: they have found the net in each of their last 19 matches, their last 17 Serie A games and their last 16 home fixtures. At least one Roma goal has also been recorded in 13 consecutive home league matches.
The second half has regularly brought further action in their fixtures. A goal after the interval has been scored in 25 of Roma's last 27 matches, in 20 of their last 22 Serie A games and in 18 of their last 20 home appearances. Those figures underline their ability to maintain an attacking threat beyond the opening stages.
Atalanta have also taken six points from their first two Serie A fixtures. They began with a 2-1 victory over Sassuolo before beating Bologna 1-0 on August 31. Samardzic settled the latter game in stoppage time with a shot from 20 metres, securing another three points after Bologna had controlled much of the contest.
The visitors' recent sequence is particularly solid: four wins and one draw across their last five matches, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and only 0.2 conceded. Their Serie A numbers this season show 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 allowed per match. Atalanta have conceded just once across their last five outings, illustrating why Roma's productive attack faces a considerably tougher examination than in the opening two rounds.
Atalanta also progressed through their Conference League playoff against Hapoel Tel Aviv with a 1-0 aggregate victory and are due to begin the league phase against Pafos. Under Sarri, they are targeting Champions League qualification and arrive at the Olimpico on a run of three consecutive victories. However, Hien and Sulemana are unavailable, while Kristiansen is not fully fit and is expected to remain out.
First-half patterns are worth monitoring. At least one team has failed to score before the break in 38 of Atalanta's last 40 matches. That record contrasts with Roma's tendency to establish an interval advantage at home, making the opening phase one of the key areas of this Serie A match preview.
Roma: Svilar; Ghilardi, Mancini, Hermoso; Lulli or Molina, Cristante, Koné, Wesley; Mora, Dybala; Malen.
Atalanta: Carnesecchi; Zappacosta, Kossounou, Scalvini, Bernasconi; Samardzic, Gaetano, Ederson; De Ketelaere, Scamacca or Krstovic, Raspadori.
Roma are without Pellegrini, while Ndicka and Rensch are major doubts. For Atalanta, the principal attacking decision concerns the choice between Scamacca and Krstovic.
The latest meeting between these teams ended 1-1 at the Stadio Olimpico on April 18, 2026. The wider recent head-to-head record favors Atalanta: from the five matches covered by the supplied summary, Roma have no wins, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Atalanta have therefore won four of the last five encounters, although the most recent contest finished level.
This match sets Roma's exceptional early attacking output against Atalanta's disciplined defensive form. The hosts have scored 10 goals across their last three matches and have struck at least once in a long sequence of league and home fixtures. Atalanta, meanwhile, have conceded only one goal in five games and remain unbeaten over that period. The available probabilities narrowly favor Roma at 48%, compared with 27% for the draw and 26% for an Atalanta victory.
Roma's home advantage, perfect league record and repeated half-time strength support their chances, but Atalanta's recent sequence and head-to-head superiority make a straightforward home success less certain. With both clubs entering the fixture in winning form, Roma's ability to protect their perfect defensive league record will be tested by an Atalanta side that has already demonstrated patience in tight matches. A result covering Roma while respecting the possibility of another draw offers the most coherent conclusion.
Roma vs Atalanta prediction from BetMines: Roma or Draw (1X) with 74% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Roma
Atalanta
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
0
10
5
5
2.5
2
8
6
4
3.5
3
7
9
1
4.5
6
4
9
1