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Prediction published on Apr 17, 2026 10:31 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Apr 17, 2026 10:31 AM
The upcoming Serie A clash between Roma and Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico promises to be a decisive encounter in the race for European qualification. The home side are currently sixth in the standings, while the visitors sit just one place behind in seventh. With only a few rounds left in the season, both teams are eager to secure valuable points that could determine their final position in the league table. The match, scheduled for Saturday, April 18, is expected to deliver intensity, tactical discipline, and plenty of attacking intent from both sides.
Roma approach this fixture after a convincing 3-0 victory over Pisa on April 10, a result that helped restore confidence following a mixed run of results. In their last five matches, the Giallorossi have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Over the course of the Serie A season, Roma have collected 18 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, maintaining an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match. These numbers underline a balanced performance, though inconsistency has occasionally hindered their progress.
At home, Roma have been particularly strong, winning 11 of their 16 league matches at the Olimpico. They have scored at least one goal in each of their last 12 home fixtures, showing a reliable attacking output in front of their supporters. Another notable trend is that over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of each of Roma’s last 19 matches, including all of their last 12 home games. This pattern suggests that the team often finds rhythm and breakthrough opportunities after the interval.
Despite recent injury concerns, Roma’s squad depth has allowed them to remain competitive. The team’s attacking line, led by dynamic forwards and creative midfielders, continues to pose a threat to any defense. The home side will aim to build on their recent win and exploit Atalanta’s occasional defensive lapses to strengthen their position in the top six.
Atalanta enter this match following a narrow 0-1 defeat against Juventus on April 11. That setback ended a positive run but did not significantly affect their momentum, as they remain within touching distance of the European qualification spots. In their last five outings, the Bergamo-based side have registered two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their overall Serie A record stands at 14 wins, 11 draws, and 7 defeats, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game — remarkably similar to Roma’s seasonal averages.
One of Atalanta’s most distinctive traits this season has been their tactical discipline and ability to control the tempo of matches. However, they have struggled to maintain consistency away from home, winning only five of their 15 away fixtures. Historically, the team has found it challenging to secure consecutive away victories against Roma, a trend they will look to reverse in this encounter. The visitors will also have to cope without key defensive players, which could influence their stability at the back.
Interestingly, at least one team has failed to score at half time in each of Atalanta’s last 35 matches, including their last 23 in Serie A. This statistic highlights a cautious approach in the early stages of games, with most of the action typically unfolding after the break. Offensively, Atalanta have shown diversity in their scoring options, boasting 17 different goal scorers this season — a testament to their collective attacking strength.
When these two sides meet, the matches are often tight and tactically complex. The last head-to-head ended 1-0 in favor of Atalanta on January 3, 2026. In their last five meetings, Roma have struggled, recording no wins, one draw, and four defeats, with an average of 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. This record gives the visitors a psychological edge, though Roma’s home form could help balance the scales.
Both teams tend to rely on structured build-up play and quick transitions. Roma’s attacking patterns often flourish in the second half, while Atalanta’s pressing and direct attacks can create dangerous situations. Given the offensive potential on both sides and the statistical trends, this fixture could see goals at both ends, especially as both teams are motivated to push forward rather than settle for a draw.
ROMA (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, N'Dicka, Hermoso; Celik, Cristante, El Aynaoui, Rensch; Soulé, El Shaarawy; Malen.
ATALANTA (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Scalvini, Djimsiti, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bernasconi; De Ketelaere, Zalewski; Krstovic.
Considering the form, statistics, and head-to-head record, this match is expected to be balanced but lively. Roma’s strong home record and attacking consistency could give them a slight advantage, while Atalanta’s resilience and tactical organization make them a dangerous opponent. Both teams have shown a tendency to score in the second half, and their similar goal averages suggest a competitive encounter with chances on both sides.
Roma vs Atalanta prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 54% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Roma
Atalanta
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
4
6
2.5
4
6
6
4
3.5
6
4
7
3
4.5
7
3
7
3