The clash between Roma and Fiorentina will close the 35th round of Serie A, a fixture that could prove decisive in the race for European qualification. Scheduled for Monday, May 4, 2026, this match at the Stadio Olimpico promises intensity and tactical balance, with both sides chasing different objectives. The home team are still fighting for a Champions League spot, while the visitors aim to secure their top-flight status. With the home advantage and recent form on their side, Roma enter the contest as slight favourites according to the latest data.

Roma’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Roma approach this encounter in strong form, having defeated Bologna 0-2 in their previous outing. That result extended their unbeaten home run to ten league matches, a streak built on consistency and attacking efficiency. Over their last five games, Roma have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their overall Serie A record stands at 19 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.

Offensively, the Giallorossi have been remarkably consistent, finding the net in each of their last 13 matches in all competitions. They have also scored at least once in their last 13 home fixtures, a sign of their attacking reliability in front of their supporters. Furthermore, over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 19 of their last 21 matches, highlighting their ability to maintain pressure and create chances as games progress.

Despite some injury concerns, Roma’s squad depth has allowed them to remain competitive. The absence of certain key players has been mitigated by the emergence of others who have stepped up in crucial moments. Their attacking line continues to be the main weapon, with several players contributing to the scoring tally. With the Champions League race still open, Roma’s motivation to secure all three points at home will be extremely high.

Fiorentina’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Fiorentina come into this match following a goalless draw against Sassuolo, a result that extended their solid run of form. Over their last five matches, they have achieved two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. In the league overall, their record stands at 8 wins, 13 draws and 13 losses, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.

Although Fiorentina’s attack has not been prolific, their defensive structure has improved notably in recent weeks. They have lost only one of their last eleven Serie A matches, showing resilience and tactical discipline. On the road, they have collected three wins in their last five away fixtures, with just one defeat and one draw, proving they can be competitive even outside Florence.

Interestingly, at least one team failed to score in the first half of Fiorentina’s last 20 league matches, suggesting a cautious approach early in games. However, their matches tend to open up after the break, as over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of each of their last 20 away games. This pattern could repeat itself at the Olimpico, where Fiorentina will likely look to contain Roma early before seeking opportunities on the counter.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

In recent meetings between these two sides, Roma have generally had the upper hand. The last encounter ended 1-2 in favour of the Giallorossi, and in their last five head-to-heads, Roma have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Fiorentina’s last victory in Rome dates back several years, and since then, they have struggled to secure positive results at the Olimpico.

From a tactical perspective, Roma’s attacking momentum and home consistency make them a formidable opponent. Their ability to score in every recent home match contrasts with Fiorentina’s more conservative approach, which often limits goal opportunities in the first half. However, Fiorentina’s improved defensive performances and their capacity to stay compact could make this a tighter contest than expected.

Given the current form and statistical trends, the match could see a balanced first half followed by a more open second period. Roma’s offensive rhythm and Fiorentina’s counter-attacking potential suggest that both teams might find scoring chances after the break. Yet, Roma’s superior home record and their need for victory in the Champions League race give them a clear psychological edge.

Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

According to the latest data, the win probabilities stand at Roma 53%, Draw 24%, and Fiorentina 23%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes option has a 56% probability, while Over 2.5 goals is also rated at 56%. These figures indicate a likely open game with scoring opportunities on both sides, though Roma remain favourites to claim the win.

Roma vs Fiorentina prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with a 53% probability.