Roma welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Olimpico on August 24, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. This opening Serie A fixture brings together two teams approaching the new campaign with significant expectations. Roma finished last season in third place after ending their league programme with five consecutive victories and 13 goals, while Fiorentina collected 29 points across the second half of their campaign after taking only 13 from the opening 19 rounds. The hosts also hold the stronger recent head-to-head record, winning three of the last five meetings and recording a commanding 4-0 victory on May 4, 2026.

Roma Recent Form and Key Statistics

Roma enter their first Serie A assignment after a mixed sequence of warm-up results. Their latest five matches produced one victory, two draws and two defeats, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game. They drew 2-2 against Borussia Dortmund on August 15, while the article also records a 3-0 defeat against Brighton. Those results show that the team has been productive in attack but less secure defensively during its recent preparations.

The longer scoring trends are much more encouraging for the home side. Roma have found the net in each of their last 17 matches, including 15 consecutive Serie A fixtures. Their home scoring sequence extends to 15 games in all competitions and 12 league matches. Second-half action has also been a regular feature: at least one goal was scored after the interval in 23 of Roma's previous 25 matches, as well as in 18 of their last 20 home fixtures and 18 of their last 20 Serie A games.

Roma's defensive work across the previous league season provides another important reference point. They registered 18 Serie A clean sheets, while their total of 11 shutouts at home was not bettered by any team in the five main European leagues. Their record against Fiorentina at this venue is particularly notable, with only three defeats in the last 52 home league meetings, alongside 33 victories and 16 draws. Since Fiorentina's 2-0 away success on April 7, 2018, Roma have collected six wins and two draws in the following eight home encounters.

The hosts have also lost only one of their last 14 opening-day matches in Serie A, posting eight wins and five draws during that sequence. That sole defeat was a 3-0 result awarded against them versus Hellas Verona in September 2020. Roma will be without Pellegrini, while summer additions Konstantinos Koulierakis and Santiago Castro are among the changes made to the squad.

Fiorentina Recent Form and Key Statistics

Fiorentina arrive with the better short-term record. Their last five matches brought two victories, two draws and one defeat, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. They are unbeaten across their latest four outings and defeated Benevento 4-1 on August 14. Fiorentina have also been ahead at half-time in each of their last three matches, giving them a positive platform before this demanding away fixture.

The visitors changed their squad considerably, adding Franco Mastantuono on loan from Real Madrid as well as Arthur Atta and Christ Inao Oulai. Their improvement during the second half of last season offers evidence of stronger league results over an extended period. Fiorentina are also free from European competition, allowing their schedule to remain focused on domestic commitments.

Several trends indicate that Fiorentina's matches can develop after the break. At least one second-half goal has been recorded in each of their last 19 away games, including 14 consecutive Serie A away fixtures. However, their first halves have often featured limited scoring between the two sides: at least one team failed to score before half-time in Fiorentina's last 24 Serie A matches and in 32 of their previous 34 games overall.

Kean has scored four league goals against Roma, including two on October 27, 2024. Nevertheless, he has not scored in 538 Serie A minutes at the Stadio Olimpico across 10 appearances. Fiorentina will be without Parisi for this match. Their recent opening-day record has improved, as they are unbeaten in their last four Serie A season openers after losing five of the eight played between 2014/15 and 2021/22.

Roma vs Fiorentina Probable Lineups

Roma: Svilar; Mancini, N'Dicka, Koulierakis; Molina, Konè, Cristante, Wesley; Soulè, Dybala; Malen.

Fiorentina: De Gea; Joao Mario, Dragusin, Ranieri, Valdepenas; Oulai, Fagioli, Ndour; Atta, Gudmundsson; Kean.

Roma vs Fiorentina Match Analysis

The available numbers present a contrast between Roma's strong historical position and Fiorentina's more convincing recent preparation. Roma have won only one of their latest five matches, whereas Fiorentina have lost once in the same span and enter this fixture following a 4-1 win. Both sides have nevertheless averaged two goals per match across those five-game samples, so each has shown the ability to create and convert chances.

Home advantage and the direct record move the balance towards Roma. The hosts have won the last three league meetings against Fiorentina after securing only one victory in the previous six encounters. They kept a clean sheet in two of the latest three clashes and won the most recent meeting 4-0. Across the five-match head-to-head summary, Roma have three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.

The probability data also favours the home team, assigning Roma a 57% chance of victory, compared with 25% for the draw and 19% for Fiorentina. At the same time, the goal markets are closely balanced: both teams to score and over 2.5 goals each carry a 52% probability. Roma's lengthy scoring streak and the repeated appearance of second-half goals in both teams' records suggest that the contest may remain active after the interval.

Fiorentina's improved recent form means the hosts cannot rely solely on their historical dominance. Even so, Roma's sustained home record in this fixture, their five-match winning finish to the previous Serie A season and the 4-0 result from May provide the clearest supporting evidence. Roma are therefore positioned as favourites, although Fiorentina's attacking output and unbeaten four-game sequence should make this a competitive opening-day encounter.

Roma vs Fiorentina prediction from BetMines: Roma win (1) with 57% probability.