Roma vs Porto Prediction: Match Preview and Analysis | Europa League

At the Stadio Olimpico, Roma and Porto face a crucial clash in the Europa League playoff second leg, with both teams needing a victory to progress. The first leg at Estádio do Dragão ended in a 1-1 draw, leaving everything open for this decisive encounter. Roma took the lead in the first half through Celik, but Porto equalized in the second half with a long-range strike from Francisco Moura. The Giallorossi had to endure the final 30 minutes with 10 men after Cristante was sent off for a second yellow card, meaning he will miss this match along with fellow suspended player Saelemaekers. Despite having a numerical advantage, Porto failed to capitalize, mainly due to Roma’s solid defensive performance and some crucial saves from Mile Svilar. This second-leg encounter is a pivotal moment for both teams, as neither is meeting preseason expectations in their domestic leagues. Roma, despite improving in Serie A, still faces a tough battle for European qualification. Porto, currently third in the Primeira Liga, has slim chances of challenging Benfica and Sporting CP for the title. Advancing to the Europa League Round of 16 could inject much-needed motivation into the season for either side. Given what’s at stake, this match is expected to be even more intense and heated than the first leg.

Roma’s Shape & Key Statistics

Roma enters this second leg in good form, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches across all competitions. However, their struggles in front of goal are concerning, as they have failed to score more than one goal in any of those games.

In Serie A, manager Claudio Ranieri has guided the team to a 9-game unbeaten streak (6 wins, 3 draws), including a crucial victory over Parma. Home form is a major advantage for Roma: they have won 7 of their last 8 matches at the Stadio Olimpico, and in the Europa League, they have won 14 of their last 16 home games.

Porto’s Shape & Key Statistics

Porto secured a 2-0 away win against Farense in their last league outing, marking only their second victory in 10 matches across all competitions. However, they are on a three-game unbeaten streak away from home (2 wins, 1 draw), which could be a boost ahead of this crucial fixture.

In the Europa League, Porto has struggled on the road, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, including a defeat against Lazio in Rome. They have managed to score in every away match but have conceded an average of 1.75 goals per game in the competition.

Roma vs Porto Prediction & Tactical Overview

Claudio Ranieri rested key players like Dybala, Dovbyk, and Hummels in Roma’s last Serie A match against Parma, ensuring they are fresh for this Europa League showdown. With Roma already eliminated from the Coppa Italia and out of the Champions League race, this competition is their only realistic chance of winning a trophy this season.

Porto, on the other hand, has a strong record against Italian teams in knockout rounds, having eliminated Roma in 2018/19, Juventus in 2020/21, and Lazio in 2021/22. However, their lack of cutting edge in the first leg, despite playing with an extra man, raises concerns.

Given Roma’s strong home record, squad motivation, and defensive solidity, they are favorites to advance. 

• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Roma vs Porto predicts the 1 at 42%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Roma vs Porto predicts the X at 26%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Roma vs Porto predicts the 2 at 32%

Probable Lineups Roma vs Porto

Roma (3-5-2): Svilar; Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Celik, Koné, Paredes, Pellegrini, Angelino; Dybala, Dovbyk. Coach: Ranieri

Porto (3-5-2): Diogo Costa; Pedro, Perez, Djalo; Joao Mario, Moura, Varela, Eustaquio, Mora; Pepe, Omorodion. Coach: Anselmi