San Marino host Belarus at San Marino Stadium on November 12 in a UEFA Nations League Group C1 match that brings together two sides with contrasting records. San Marino have lost all four of their group games, conceding 16 goals, while Belarus have taken seven points from four matches. Their most recent meeting ended 4-0 to Belarus on October 3. For the hosts, the immediate challenge is to halt a long run of defeats; for the visitors, it is to make their stronger record count again.

San Marino's Recent Form and Key Stats

San Marino have yet to collect a point in this Nations League campaign, with four defeats from four fixtures and an average of 4.0 goals conceded per match. Their latest outing, a 2-1 loss away to Albania on October 6, did at least bring their first goal of the group campaign. That offers a small improvement in attack, but their defensive record remains the central concern ahead of Belarus's visit.

The pattern extends beyond Group C1. San Marino have lost their last 14 matches and have conceded at least twice in each of their last 11. Across their most recent five games, they have no wins or draws, scoring an average of 0.4 goals while conceding 3.6. Those figures leave little room for error: even when San Marino find a goal, keeping their opponents out has proved difficult.

Home form provides no clear relief. San Marino have lost 18 of their last 20 home matches and conceded at least two goals in 18 of them. They have also failed to win at half-time in their last 20 home fixtures. The scorelines in their games have often been shaped by goals at both ends of the clock: their last 11 matches have all produced over 2.5 goals in total, and each of their last 10 has featured at least one second-half goal. Those are total match-goal trends, rather than a record of goals scored by San Marino alone.

Belarus's Recent Form and Key Stats

Belarus arrive with two wins, one draw and one defeat from their four Nations League matches. They have conceded an average of just 0.5 goals per game in the competition, a marked contrast with San Marino's 4.0. Across their last five matches, Belarus have recorded two wins, two draws and one loss, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

On October 6, Belarus beat Finland 1-0 at home, with Artem Shumansky scoring the only goal just ten seconds after kickoff. It was a narrow victory, but one that showed Belarus could protect an early lead. Their recent results suggest they do not need a high-scoring game to take points, particularly against a side that has struggled to limit opponents' chances of scoring.

The head-to-head record is also firmly in the visitors' favor. Belarus have won all three listed meetings with San Marino, scoring 11 goals without conceding. The latest was the 4-0 result on October 3. There is one caution against assuming Belarus will control every phase of this match: they have trailed at half-time in six of their last 10 away games. Even so, their defensive record in this Nations League campaign and their results against San Marino give them a substantial advantage going into the fixture.

San Marino vs Belarus Match Analysis

The clearest contrast is between San Marino's repeated defensive difficulties and Belarus's ability to keep group opponents out. San Marino have conceded in each of their last 17 matches, including at least twice in the last 11. Belarus, meanwhile, have allowed only 0.5 goals per Nations League game on average and have not conceded in any of the three listed meetings between these teams. San Marino's goal against Albania shows they can contribute to the scoreline, but their wider record makes another result difficult to secure.

Goals after the interval are worth watching without overlooking Belarus's early strike against Finland. At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of San Marino's last 10 matches, while four of Belarus's last six competitive away games have had most of their goals in the second half. Those trends point to the possibility of a match that continues to develop after the break; they do not, by themselves, determine which team will score.

Belarus have the stronger case for the result. Their seven points from four group games, lower rate of goals conceded and three consecutive wins over San Marino all support the visitors. San Marino's recent home defeats add to that picture, although Belarus's record of trailing at half-time in six of their last 10 away fixtures is a reminder that an away win need not be straightforward from the opening minutes. Over the full match, the supplied form and head-to-head figures favor Belarus.

San Marino vs Belarus prediction from BetMines: Belarus win (2) with 73% probability.