Santos host Mirassol on Sunday, August 23, 2026, at 21:30 in the 24th round of Brazil’s Serie A. The match at Estádio Urbano Caldeira is a direct contest between teams attempting to move away from the relegation zone. Santos enter the fixture in 14th place, while Mirassol are 17th. The home side have produced the stronger recent results and face opponents who have struggled on their travels, collecting only 23% of the available points away from home. Mirassol nevertheless have an immediate opportunity to improve their situation, giving this Santos vs Mirassol preview considerable importance for both clubs.

Santos Recent Form and Key Statistics

Santos have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five matches. Across that sequence, they averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw away to Macará on August 20, a result that followed a home victory over the same opponents and secured progression to the Copa Sudamericana quarter-finals. They also recorded an important 3-0 victory away to Vasco in a direct domestic battle.

Their Serie A record stands at six wins, seven draws and nine defeats. Santos have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in the competition, showing that their league matches have generally included opportunities at both ends. A total of 32 goals from 22 league games also gives the hosts one of the division’s five best attacking records, although the 35 goals conceded underline why they remain involved in the lower part of the standings.

Several trends offer encouragement before this home assignment. The last 11 Serie A matches involving Santos have all produced over 1.5 total goals. They have also avoided being behind at half-time in 28 of their last 31 matches and in 18 of their last 20 home fixtures. Those numbers indicate that Santos have regularly remained competitive during the opening period, an important detail against a Mirassol side arriving without a victory in five games.

Neymar is expected to return after being rested against Macará, while Thaciano is considered doubtful after being substituted in that game. Adonis Frías, Gabriel Bontempo, Gabriel Menino, Lucas Veríssimo and Vinícius Lira are listed among the injured players. Gabriel Barbosa, the team’s leading scorer in both Serie A and the Copa Sudamericana, remains the principal attacking reference.

Mirassol Recent Form and Key Statistics

Mirassol approach the trip with no wins, two draws and three defeats from their last five matches. During that period, they averaged only 0.6 goals scored while conceding 2.0 per game. Their latest outing ended in a 0-0 draw against LDU Quito on August 20, but they were eliminated on penalties. Before that setback, Mirassol had suffered a 5-1 home defeat against Flamengo.

The visitors have registered six wins, five draws and 11 losses in Serie A, averaging 1.1 goals for and 1.6 against per match. Their defensive record is a major concern: Mirassol have conceded at least once in 21 of their last 22 league games. They have allowed 35 goals overall and carry a goal difference of minus 10, combining a vulnerable defence with an attack that has been less productive than Santos’.

Mirassol have managed only one victory in their last four matches and have one of the competition’s weakest away records. Despite those difficulties, their position means there is plenty at stake. A victory would provide an opportunity to climb out of the relegation zone, so the visitors cannot treat this simply as a damage-limitation exercise.

Denilson is unavailable after receiving his third yellow card against Flamengo. Edson Carioca, José Aldo and Negueba are also absent through injury. These missing options add another complication for a team trying to recover from consecutive setbacks and rediscover a winning rhythm.

Probable Lineups for Santos vs Mirassol

Santos: Gabriel Brazão; Igor Vinícius, Luan Peres, Willian Arão, Escobar; João Schmidt, Christian Oliva; Barreal, Neymar, Moisés; Gabriel Barbosa.

Mirassol: Walter; Formiga, João Victor, Willian Machado, Reinaldo; Japa, Neto Moura, Shaylon; Eduardo, Santos, Alesson.

Santos vs Mirassol Match Analysis

The recent evidence gives Santos a clear advantage. They have collected three victories from five matches, whereas Mirassol have failed to win during the same period. The contrast is also visible in their averages: Santos have conceded 0.6 goals per game across their last five, compared with Mirassol’s 2.0. Home advantage strengthens the case for Santos, especially against opponents whose away return is only 23%.

The historical comparison is less straightforward. Santos have not defeated Mirassol in their last three Brazilian Championship meetings, while the most recent head-to-head finished 2-2 on March 11, 2026. The broader five-match summary gives Santos two wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Mirassol therefore have evidence that they can compete in this matchup, even if their current form is weaker.

Goal expectations are balanced. Santos’ run of 11 Serie A fixtures with at least two total goals and Mirassol’s repeated defensive concessions suggest that the hosts should create scoring opportunities. However, Mirassol have averaged just 0.6 goals across their last five games, while both teams enter after separate 0-0 draws. The supplied probabilities consequently lean slightly towards under 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams not scoring at 55%.

The main result probabilities are more decisive: Santos are rated at 56% to win, compared with 25% for the draw and 19% for a Mirassol victory. Santos’ stronger recent record, greater attacking output and home advantage support that assessment. Mirassol’s poor sequence, defensive vulnerability and unavailable players make this a demanding away assignment, although the importance of the points should ensure a competitive encounter.

Santos vs Mirassol prediction from BetMines: Santos win (1) with 56% probability.