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São Paulo
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Coritiba
Prediction published on Aug 14, 2026 12:05 AM by Dario in Brazil - Serie A | Modified on Aug 14, 2026 12:05 AM
São Paulo host Coritiba in the 23rd round of the Brazilian Serie A, with both teams seeking stability after difficult recent runs. The hosts return to Morumbis needing to halt a prolonged decline that has left them 12th in the standings, while Coritiba arrive in 10th place after ending a four-game winless sequence. São Paulo won the reverse fixture 1-0 on February 25, 2026, and their overall head-to-head record against Coritiba stands at three wins, two draws and no defeats. Nevertheless, the home side’s current form means another victory cannot be taken for granted.
São Paulo enter this Serie A match without a victory in their last five outings, recording two draws and three defeats. Across that spell, they averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, figures that illustrate the problems affecting both ends of the pitch. Their most recent result was a 1-1 draw away to Club Bolívar on August 12, when Arboleda scored from an assist supplied by Iago.
The hosts have won seven, drawn five and lost nine of their Serie A fixtures this season. Their league averages are balanced at 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, but the broader trend is concerning: the team has gone eight league games without winning and has collected only one victory from its last 14 matches in all competitions. During that eight-match Serie A drought, São Paulo registered three draws and five defeats while conceding in every game.
There are still encouraging patterns for the home side, particularly before the interval. São Paulo have led at half time in each of their last five home matches, including their previous three at home in Serie A. They have also avoided being behind at the break in 19 of their last 21 games and have won the first half in six of their last ten. At least one of the teams failed to score before half time in 34 of São Paulo’s previous 35 matches, while every one of their last 13 Serie A games produced at least one second-half goal.
Several absences complicate the hosts’ preparations. Rafael Tolói, Lucas Moura, Artur, Sabino and Maik are listed among the players unavailable through injury. Recent additions Domingos Duarte, Newton and Iago started against Club Bolívar, while Buta appeared during the second half. In attack, Calleri and Luciano are the leading Serie A scorers for São Paulo with seven and six goals respectively, making their contribution especially important during this difficult period.
Coritiba travel to Morumbis after a 2-1 victory over Chapecoense on August 8. That result brought an end to four consecutive Serie A matches without a win, although it did not completely erase the concerns created by their recent performances. Their last five games have produced one win, one draw and three defeats, with averages of 0.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per fixture.
The visitors sit 10th in Serie A and have accumulated a season record of eight victories, six draws and eight losses. They average 1.2 goals per match while conceding 1.3, leaving their overall attacking production very close to São Paulo’s. Coritiba have scored one more league goal than their opponents but have conceded four more, underlining how narrow the statistical difference between the teams has been over the campaign.
First-half scoring has also been uncommon in Coritiba’s matches. At least one team failed to find the net before the interval in 37 of their previous 40 games. However, only two of Coritiba’s last ten away fixtures finished the first half without a goal, suggesting that their recent matches on the road have often produced an early breakthrough from one side or the other.
Breno Lopes remains Coritiba’s main attacking reference after scoring eight Serie A goals. His output could be crucial for a team that has averaged only 0.6 goals across its last five matches. There are also fitness issues to monitor after Josué and Brian Ocampo left the Chapecoense game with physical problems and required further assessment. Bruno Melo also felt discomfort in that match, although his situation was not considered as worrying. Pedro Rangel and Lucas Ronier are confirmed absentees.
This contest brings together two sides whose season statistics are relatively similar but whose immediate priorities differ. São Paulo urgently need to end their winless league run and create distance from the lower part of the standings. Playing again at Morumbis offers an opportunity to respond, especially given their sequence of strong first-half results at home. However, repeatedly conceding during their eight-match league winless streak shows that an early advantage would not automatically settle the contest.
Coritiba arrive with renewed confidence after beating Chapecoense, but one positive result follows a run of four matches without a victory. Their record of three defeats in the last five games, combined with an average of 1.6 goals conceded in that period, indicates that they remain vulnerable. At the same time, Breno Lopes provides a clear attacking threat against a São Paulo side that has recently struggled to keep clean sheets.
The reverse meeting offers another relevant reference point. São Paulo controlled more possession away from home and earned a 1-0 victory through Cauly’s penalty. Their five-match unbeaten head-to-head record, featuring three wins and two draws, gives the hosts a positive historical pattern within the information available. Even so, their current lack of victories should keep the match competitive.
The first half could be particularly important. Both teams have extensive records in which at least one side failed to score before the break, while São Paulo have consistently established half-time leads in recent home fixtures. After the interval, the hosts’ run of 13 consecutive Serie A games containing
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
São Paulo
Coritiba
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
7
3
3
7
3.5
10
0
6
4
4.5
10
0
8
2