The third round of the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A brings an exciting clash between São Paulo and Grêmio, scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, at 21:30 (Brasília time). The match will take place at the MorumBIS, where the home side aims to extend their unbeaten run and strengthen their position near the top of the table. Both teams arrive in good form, promising a balanced and entertaining encounter in São Paulo.

São Paulo’s Recent Form and Key Stats

São Paulo come into this fixture on a four-match unbeaten streak across all competitions, having won three of those games. Their latest victory was a 2-1 success against Primavera SP on February 7. In the Brasileirão, the Tricolor Paulista have started solidly, recording one win and one draw, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. This consistency has placed them sixth in the league standings.

At home, São Paulo have been particularly reliable. They have not lost at half time in their last 13 home matches in Serie A and have won the first half in 9 of their last 13 home league games. Their attacking rhythm has also been steady, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half of each of their last 17 matches. Defensively, they tend to keep things tight early on, as at least one team failed to score before half time in 37 of their last 39 fixtures.

In terms of overall performance, São Paulo’s last five matches show 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The team’s recent form suggests a balanced approach between attack and defense, with a strong home advantage that could play a decisive role in this encounter.

• Unbeaten in 4 matches this season.


• Over 7.5 corners in 23 of their last 24 matches.


• Have scored in 8 consecutive games.


• Unbeaten at home against Grêmio in their last 12 meetings.

Grêmio’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Grêmio also arrive in good shape, unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. They bounced back from a 2-1 defeat to Fluminense in the opening round of Serie A with an impressive 5-3 victory over Botafogo on February 5. That result showcased their attacking potential, as they have averaged 3.0 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game in the league so far.

In their last five matches, the Tricolor Gaúcho have recorded 3 wins and 2 defeats, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Their offensive output has been consistent, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half in 18 of their last 20 matches. Away from home, they maintain a similar pattern, with goals in the second half in each of their last 11 away league games.

Despite their attacking strength, Grêmio’s defense has shown some vulnerabilities, which could be exploited by São Paulo’s dynamic front line. Still, their recent form in domestic and state competitions suggests they are capable of competing on equal terms, even away from home.

• Won 5-3 against Botafogo in the last round.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 18 of their last 20 matches.


• Average of 2.8 goals scored per match in their last five games.


• Currently 9th in the Serie A standings.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The rivalry between São Paulo and Grêmio has always been competitive. In their last five meetings, São Paulo have won three times and lost twice, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. The most recent encounter ended 2-0 in favor of Grêmio on October 16, 2025. However, history at the MorumBIS strongly favors the hosts, who have not lost at home to Grêmio in their last 12 meetings and have won the last four of those.

São Paulo’s current momentum, combined with their home advantage and solid defensive record, makes them slight favorites. Grêmio, on the other hand, will rely on their attacking flair to challenge the hosts, but their defensive lapses could prove costly against a team that rarely fails to score at home. Both sides tend to produce open matches, especially in the second half, where goals are frequent for both teams.

Given the attacking trends and the balance between the two squads, this fixture promises to be dynamic, with both teams likely to create several scoring opportunities. São Paulo’s consistency and home record, however, give them a marginal edge heading into this clash.

BetMines Prediction: São Paulo vs Grêmio

According to the latest probabilities, São Paulo have a 52% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and a Grêmio win is estimated at 23%. The Both Teams To Score – Yes option has a 52% probability, while Over 2.5 goals is balanced at 49% versus 51% for the Under. Considering São Paulo’s strong home form and Grêmio’s attacking nature, the most likely outcome points towards a home win (1).

São Paulo vs Grêmio prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with 52% probability.