After a mixed start to the Bundesliga campaign, SC Freiburg will look to get back on track when they host FSV Mainz 05 on Sunday, November 30. The Breisgau side, once a consistent top-half performer, have struggled to maintain their usual standards this season. Despite losing only twice in their last nine matches — both defeats coming against title contenders Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen — Freiburg have managed just one win in their last seven outings across all competitions. Their recent 0-0 draw against Viktoria Plzeň in the Europa League highlighted their current difficulties in turning possession into goals.

For Mainz 05, the situation is even more concerning. The team sits near the bottom of the table, having collected only one win all season. Their 1-0 defeat to Universitatea Craiova in the Conference League midweek added to the frustration, and with just two points from their last seven Bundesliga matches, confidence is low. The visitors will need a strong performance to avoid slipping further into the relegation zone, especially given their poor away record and defensive vulnerabilities.

SC Freiburg’s Recent Form and Key Stats

SC Freiburg currently occupy 11th place in the Bundesliga standings with a record of three wins, four draws, and four defeats. They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded per match. In their last five fixtures, they have registered two wins, two draws, and one defeat, showing some resilience but lacking consistency in front of goal. Their home form, however, remains a positive factor: Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 12 home matches, and they have found the net in all of them. Moreover, both teams have scored in the last 10 Bundesliga games played at the Europa-Park Stadion, underlining their attacking intent but also defensive fragility.

Freiburg’s recent performances suggest a team that can compete with anyone on their day but struggles to close out matches. Their goalless draw against Viktoria Plzeň in Europe was a reminder of their occasional inefficiency in front of goal. Still, with only Bayern and Leverkusen managing to beat them this season, the hosts will be confident of securing a much-needed victory before the winter break. Coach Christian Streich will likely emphasize a strong start, as Over 0.5 goals at half time have been recorded in each of their last 12 home fixtures, showing their tendency to engage in open first halves.

FSV Mainz 05’s Recent Form and Key Stats

FSV Mainz 05 find themselves in 17th place, struggling to escape the relegation zone. Their Bundesliga record of one win, three draws, and seven defeats paints a worrying picture. The team averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.7 conceded per game, and their last five matches have produced one win, two draws, and two losses. Mainz’s defense has been a persistent issue — they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 22 Bundesliga matches. Away from home, their inconsistency is striking: they have failed to draw in 19 of their last 20 away games, often alternating between narrow defeats and rare victories.

Injuries have also hit the squad hard, with several key players unavailable for the trip to Freiburg. The team’s morale took another blow after the 1-0 defeat to Craiova in the Conference League, a match that exposed their lack of creativity in attack. Despite their struggles, Mainz have shown they can compete — five of their seven league defeats have been by a single goal margin, suggesting that luck has not been on their side. However, unless they improve their defensive organization and find more efficiency in front of goal, the 05ers risk being left behind in the relegation battle.

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 Prediction and Tactical Overview

Historically, this fixture has been a tight one. Seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings between Freiburg and Mainz have ended in draws, including three of the last four played in Freiburg. Their most recent encounter, in March 2025, finished 2-2, reflecting the balanced nature of this rivalry. However, current form suggests that Freiburg may have the upper hand this time. The hosts are more stable defensively and have a stronger attacking rhythm at home, while Mainz’s confidence is at a low point after a series of disappointing results.

Freiburg’s attacking trio will look to exploit Mainz’s defensive lapses, particularly in the first half, where the visitors have lost at half time in six of their last ten Bundesliga matches. The home side’s ability to score early could be decisive. On the other hand, Mainz will rely on compact defending and counterattacks, hoping to catch Freiburg off guard. Given both teams’ recent trends, goals at both ends seem likely, but Freiburg’s home advantage and consistency against weaker sides could make the difference.

With the winter break approaching, this match represents a crucial opportunity for Freiburg to climb back into the top half of the table. For Mainz, it’s a fight for survival — a chance to stop the downward spiral and regain some confidence before December’s fixtures.

Freiburg vs Mainz 05 prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a SC Freiburg win (1) with a 49% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 24%, while a FSV Mainz 05 win (2) stands at 27%.