Scotland host Slovenia at Hampden Park in Glasgow on October 6 for a UEFA Nations League Group B1 fixture with little separating the sides. Both have four points from three matches, with Slovenia second and Scotland third. Their meeting in Slovenia ended 0-0, leaving this return game as an opportunity for either team to strengthen its case for second place. Scotland arrive after their first win of the campaign, while Slovenia are looking to respond to a defeat in Switzerland. Recent results, however, offer neither side a clear advantage in what could be another close contest.

Scotland's Recent Form and Key Stats

Scotland beat North Macedonia 2-0 away on October 3, scoring in the seventh and 69th minutes. The result brought their first goals after four consecutive matches without scoring and gave coach Sebastien Pocognoli his first win with the side. It was not an entirely comfortable finish, though: Scotland ended the game with ten players after receiving a red card for the second match in a row.

Across their three Nations League fixtures, the Scots have recorded one win, one draw and one defeat, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Their last five matches in all competitions have produced one win, one draw and three defeats, with an average of just 0.4 goals scored. The 0-0 draw in Slovenia was followed by a 3-0 home defeat to Switzerland, so the win over North Macedonia has given them a chance to build momentum rather than erased all their concerns.

There are also contrasting patterns in Scotland's recent results. None of their last nine fixtures saw both teams score, and their last ten Nations League matches have all finished with fewer than four total goals. At home, however, Scotland have been behind at half-time in each of their last three matches. Defender Scott McKenna is suspended after his dismissal against North Macedonia, while Jack Hendry is available again following a suspension. Kieran Tierney, Scott McTominay and Che Adams remain absent through injury. John McGinn scored Scotland's second goal in their latest win.

Slovenia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Slovenia lost 2-1 away to Switzerland on October 3, ending their unbeaten start to this Nations League campaign. They had previously drawn with Scotland and beaten North Macedonia at home, leaving them with the same one-win, one-draw, one-defeat record as their hosts. Slovenia average 1.0 goal scored and 0.7 conceded per Nations League match. Over their last five fixtures, they have won once, drawn twice and lost twice.

Their away record makes this a demanding follow-up to the Switzerland defeat. Slovenia have won only one of their last seven away games, drawing two and losing four. They managed just one shot on target in the home draw against Scotland, although they did find the net in their latest trip to Switzerland. Benjamin Sesko remains out of the squad, and there were no new injury concerns reported after the last match. Zan Vipotnik could continue to lead the attack, while Sandi Lovric scored in the 2-0 win over North Macedonia.

Low-scoring results have been especially persistent for Slovenia. Each of their last ten matches and last 13 away fixtures has featured under 3.5 total goals. Five of their last 13 games ended without a goal, as did four of their last 11 away matches. They have also gone 17 matches without winning at half-time. Those figures do not rule out a Slovenian breakthrough, but they underline how often their games have remained tight.

Scotland vs Slovenia Match Analysis

The first meeting offers a useful starting point for this Scotland vs Slovenia preview: neither team scored in the 0-0 draw on September 26. Four of the last six meetings between the sides have included at least one clean sheet, while four of those six ended level. The wider head-to-head summary gives Scotland two wins and three draws from five matches against Slovenia, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded.

Scotland's two goals against North Macedonia showed an improvement after their scoring drought, but their recent average of 0.4 goals per game across five fixtures points to an attack still seeking consistency. Slovenia, meanwhile, have scored in their last two Nations League matches but struggled to create shots on target when these teams first met. Scotland's home defeat to Switzerland and Slovenia's limited away wins leave room for either side to improve on its most recent performances.

The strongest shared theme is the number of restrained scorelines. Scotland's ten-match Nations League run under 3.5 goals aligns with Slovenia's ten-match run under the same total, and the reverse fixture produced no goals at all. With both teams level on points, another close game would fit the evidence better than an open contest, even if Scotland's latest win and Slovenia's goal in Switzerland give each side reason to pursue a decisive result.

Scotland vs Slovenia prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 53% probability.