On Saturday, October 11, all eyes will be on the Stadion Dubocica in Leskovac for the Balkan derby between Serbia and Albania, two national teams tied by a heated historical and football rivalry. Adding even more intensity to the atmosphere is the importance of the stakes: both teams are contenders for second place in Group K, crucial for qualifying for the upcoming FIFA World Cup. In a group dominated by England, who are full points after the first five matchdays, Serbia and Albania sit in third and second place respectively, separated by just one point, with the home team having played one match less. A derby win would allow Serbia to overtake their rivals, increasing their chances of finishing second and competing in the playoffs. Otherwise, Albania would move four points ahead of their historic rivals, consolidating a strong position in the race for the playoffs. Given the rivalry and importance of the match, a fierce and intense game is expected, with the home team slightly favored to claim all three points.

Serbia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Serbia is currently experiencing a fairly positive run of form, having lost only one of their last eight matches between World Cup qualifiers and the Nations League. The only defeat came on September 9, a heavy 5-0 home loss against England, the group leaders with full points after five games.

The national team led by Dragan Stojkovic has accumulated 7 points so far, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.25 conceded per match. From a defensive perspective, it is worth noting that before the debacle against the Three Lions, Serbia had kept a clean sheet in the three previous matches against Albania, Andorra, and Latvia.

Before the defeat against England, Serbia had not lost at home in five consecutive matches, with three wins and two draws, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game and never conceding. This trend highlights the strong cohesion of Stojkovic’s squad on home soil, supported by the passionate backing of their fans.

Albania's Recent Form and Key Stats

Albania enters this crucial match unbeaten in their last four official games, with two wins and two draws. In the most recent game, played on September 9, the team coached by Sylvinho defeated Latvia 1-0, thanks to a penalty converted by Kristian Asllani, midfielder for Torino and former Inter player.

In the first five rounds of Group K, Albania has collected 8 points, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, averaging 1 goal scored and 0.6 conceded per match. The team’s main strength is the defense, led by experienced Berat Djimsiti, a long-time cornerstone of Atalanta.

However, their recent away form has been inconsistent: in the last five games played on the road in World Cup qualifiers and Nations League, Albania has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

Serbia vs Albania Prediction by BetMines

The Serbia vs Albania prediction suggests a match that, as tradition dictates, will be fierce, intense, and tense, with a high probability of yellow and red cards for both teams.

Regarding the final result, BetMines sees the home team favored to win with a 48% probability, while the visitors stand at 25%. A draw is slightly more likely than an Albanian victory, estimated at 27%.

Serbia’s excellent home trend before the defeat to England works in their favor, while Albania has shown inconsistent results on the road.

In terms of excitement, the match is likely to produce few goals and limited action: in the last three meetings, Serbia averaged 0.7 goals per match, while Albania averaged 1 goal. Notably, the last head-to-head encounter, played on June 7, ended 0-0.

BetMines therefore predicts a game with under three total goals, with a 59% probability. The Under 2.5 goals outcome occurred 7 times in Serbia’s last 10 games and 8 times in Albania’s last 10.

Additionally, there is a 59% chance that at least one of the two teams will fail to score, as happened in the last three direct confrontations between the sides.

Probable Lineups Serbia vs Albania

SERBIA (3-5-2): Petrovic; Erakovic, Veljkovic, Pavlovic; Zivkovic, Maksimovic, Gudelj, Stankovic, Kostic; Mitrovic, Vlahovic. Coach: D. Stojkovic

ALBANIA (4-3-3): Strakosha; Hysaj, Ajeti, Djimsiti, Mitaj; Laci, Shehu, Asllani; Broja, Manaj, Bajrami. Coach: Sylvinho