The UEFA Conference League quarter-final first leg between Shakhtar Donetsk and AZ Alkmaar promises to be a thrilling encounter. The match will be played in Krakow, where Shakhtar continue to host their European fixtures. This will be the third competitive meeting between the two sides, with AZ holding the upper hand after winning both previous encounters. With a semifinal spot at stake, both teams will be eager to take a decisive step forward in this first leg.

Shakhtar Donetsk’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk come into this clash in strong domestic form, having beaten Rukh Vynnyky 3-0 in their latest outing. That result extended their run to four wins in their last five matches across all competitions, during which they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. In the Europa Conference League, their record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

Despite being forced to play their home games away from Ukraine, Shakhtar have shown resilience. However, their European home form remains inconsistent, with just one win in their last six such fixtures. A notable trend is their tendency for quiet first halves — in 30 of their last 32 matches, at least one team failed to score before the break. On the other hand, the second half often brings more action, with over 0.5 goals scored in 18 of their last 20 matches.

In attack, Shakhtar have been productive domestically, with several players contributing to their goal tally. However, their forwards have struggled to replicate that form in Europe. The team’s ability to find the net will be crucial if they are to challenge AZ’s defensive organization. Historically, Shakhtar have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded per game against the Dutch side, losing both previous meetings.

• Last 5 matches: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals scored: 1.8 | Average conceded: 0.6


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half: 18 of last 20 matches


• At least one team failed to score at half time: 30 of last 32 matches

AZ Alkmaar’s Recent Form and Key Stats

AZ Alkmaar travel to Krakow after a convincing 2-0 win over Fortuna Sittard, continuing their strong run of form. They have won four of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.4 goals and conceding 0.8 per game. In the Europa Conference League, AZ have been one of the most consistent teams, boasting a record of 11 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with an impressive 2.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match.

AZ’s attacking strength has been a key factor in their European campaign. They have scored in eight of their last ten matches, netting two or more goals in seven of them. Their matches tend to open up after the break, with over 0.5 goals in the second half recorded in 26 of their last 28 Conference League games. However, their away form remains a concern — they have lost four of their last five away fixtures, though they have not drawn any of their last 19 on the road.

In this competition, AZ have shown a habit of taking early control, having led at half time in their last three matches. Their ability to maintain intensity throughout both halves could be decisive against a Shakhtar side that often grows into games after the interval. Historically, AZ have dominated this matchup, winning both previous meetings, including a 2-1 victory in 2005.

• Last 5 matches: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals scored: 2.4 | Average conceded: 0.8


• Over 1.5 goals in last 10 matches


• Over 0.5 goals in second half in last 17 away Conference League matches


• Haven’t drawn in last 19 away matches

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar Tactical Overview

This quarter-final first leg brings together two sides with contrasting strengths. Shakhtar Donetsk rely on their attacking rhythm and quick transitions, while AZ Alkmaar have built their success on structured pressing and efficient finishing. The Ukrainian side’s challenge will be to maintain defensive discipline against a team that rarely fails to score. Meanwhile, AZ must overcome their recent away struggles to capitalize on their superior European form.

Given both teams’ attacking tendencies, goals are expected, especially in the second half. Shakhtar’s recent record of scoring in nine of their last ten matches and AZ’s consistent offensive output suggest an open contest. However, AZ’s sharper edge in front of goal and their historical dominance in this fixture could give them a slight advantage heading into the return leg.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

Based on the statistical trends and current form, this encounter is likely to produce goals from both sides. Shakhtar’s strong domestic momentum and AZ’s attacking consistency point towards an entertaining match. The Dutch side’s superior European record and head-to-head advantage make them slight favorites to edge this first leg.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs AZ Alkmaar prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 59% probability.