After their surprising elimination of FCSB in the second round, Shkendija look to continue their impressive run as they host Qarabag in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round. The Macedonian champions have undoubtedly been one of the biggest revelations of the early stages—not so much for dispatching Welsh side TNS in the first round, but for what they achieved in the second. Jeton Bekiri’s men knocked out FCSB, one of the top contenders to reach the UCL group stage. After a 1-0 home win (with a 65th-minute goal by Alhassan), the Macedonians shocked Europe again by winning 2-1 at the National Arena in Bucharest, despite initially falling behind. It was a historic result that has now positioned Shkendija as potential dark horses to go deep in the qualifying campaign. However, they now face a major obstacle: Azerbaijani champions Qarabag. Fresh from their 2024/25 UEFA Europa League campaign, Gurban Gurbanov’s side made light work of Shelbourne in the first round, winning 3-0 on aggregate. Qarabag are well-accustomed to the European stage—even though their last Champions League group stage appearance dates back to 2017/18—and will rely on their technical superiority and knockout-stage experience to neutralize Shkendija’s momentum. One thing is certain: after what happened to FCSB, the Azeris will not underestimate the high-flying Macedonians.

Shkendija's Recent Form and Key Stats

With their domestic league yet to begin, Shkendija effectively kicked off the 2025/26 season with their Champions League qualifiers—and have exceeded all expectations so far. They’ve come through two rounds (four matches in total), scoring 5 goals and conceding just 2.

Notably, all five goals have been scored by different players, underscoring the team's collective play and lack of dependence on a single goal scorer.

The Macedonian champions boast an excellent home record, having lost just one of their last 19 home games. In all competitions, they’ve either won or drawn 27 of their last 29 fixtures, proving to be a well-organized and tough side. Last season, they averaged 2.29 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game.

Qarabag's Recent Form and Key Stats

Qarabag also began their 2025/26 campaign with Champions League qualification matches, following the usual round of preseason friendlies. Unlike their Macedonian counterparts, the Azeris have played just two games—both wins against Shelbourne: 3-0 away and 1-0 at home. Their defense has stood out so far, keeping two clean sheets.

After dominating their domestic league last season—finishing 15 points clear at the top—Qarabag had an excellent away record as well: 13 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 defeat. They averaged 2.16 goals scored and 0.55 goals conceded per away game.

Shkendija vs Qarabag Prediction and Tactical Overview

Shkendija are undoubtedly one of the surprise packages of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League qualifying rounds, and there's growing curiosity about how far the Macedonian champions can go. However, the algorithm suggests that their fairytale run might hit a wall against Qarabag.

According to BetMines, the visitors have a 54% chance of winning the match, compared to just 25% for the home side. Qarabag’s edge lies in their superior international experience and their defensive solidity shown in the two legs against Shelbourne.

In addition to a likely Qarabag win, BetMines’ prediction model also expects a match featuring at least three total goals. Despite being underdogs, if Shkendija show the same determination and courage they’ve displayed so far, they could find the net at least once, backed by a passionate home crowd.

• Shkendija vs Qarabag Prediction by BetMines: Qarabag to win (away win – 2) – 54%
  
  
• Shkendija vs Qarabag Prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals – 45%

Probable Line-ups Shkendija vs Qarabag

SHKENDIJA (4-2-3-1): Gaye; Trumci, Cake, Fetai, Webster; Alhassan, Ramadani; Tamba, Krasniqi, Krstevski; Ibraimi.
Coach: J. Bekiri

QARABAG (4-3-3): Buntic; Bayramov, Medina, Mustafazada, Silva; Bicalho, Addai, Borges; Andrade, Akhundzade, Zoubir.
Coach: G. Gurbanov