The UEFA Europa Conference League Knockout Round Play-offs begin with an intriguing first leg between Shkendija and Samsunspor. The Macedonian side will host the Turkish visitors in a match that could set the tone for qualification to the next stage. Both teams arrive with contrasting domestic and continental form, but each will be eager to gain an early advantage in this two-legged tie. With both sides showing defensive discipline in recent weeks, this encounter promises to be a tight and tactical affair rather than a goal fest.

Shkendija’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Shkendija finished their Europa Conference League league-phase campaign in 22nd place, collecting seven points from six matches (two wins, one draw, and three defeats). Despite their modest record, they advanced to this round on goal difference, edging out several teams with similar totals. Their performances have been characterized by low-scoring games and a solid defensive base, conceding an average of just 0.8 goals per match in Europe this season.

Domestically, the Ballists have been in excellent form. They recently defeated Tikves 4–1 on February 14, extending a strong run of results that includes four wins in their last five matches across all competitions. During this period, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game while conceding only 0.6. Moreover, Shkendija have shown remarkable consistency at home, having avoided defeat at half time in each of their last 13 home fixtures. Their ability to stay compact and organized in the first half could once again be crucial against a side that tends to grow stronger as matches progress.

• Under 3.5 goals have been scored in each of Shkendija’s last 10 Europa Conference League matches.


• They have not lost at half time in 19 of their last 21 games overall.


• Average goals scored in the competition: 0.7 per match.


• Average goals conceded: 0.8 per match.

These numbers underline a team that prioritizes structure and efficiency over attacking flair. If they can maintain their defensive discipline, Shkendija will have every chance of keeping the tie alive heading into the second leg.

Samsunspor’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Samsunspor approach this fixture after a challenging spell in the Turkish Super Lig, suffering consecutive defeats, including a 3–1 loss to Antalyaspor on February 13. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five matches, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Despite these setbacks, their European campaign has been more encouraging. They recorded three wins, one draw, and two losses in the Conference League league phase, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

The Red Lightning began their continental journey strongly, winning their first three matches and drawing the fourth before losing momentum in the final two rounds. Nevertheless, their attacking potential remains evident, particularly in the second half of matches. In fact, over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half of each of their last 11 away games, and in 20 of their last 22 matches overall. This trend suggests that Samsunspor often find their rhythm after the break, a factor that could influence the tactical approach in this first leg.

• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 11 consecutive away matches.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 20 of their last 22 games overall.


• Europa Conference League record: W 3 · D 1 · L 2.


• Average goals scored: 1.7 · Average conceded: 1.0.

While their defense has occasionally looked vulnerable, Samsunspor’s ability to create chances and score away from home could make them a dangerous opponent. However, they will need to be cautious against a Shkendija side that rarely allows open spaces or high-scoring games.

Shkendija vs Samsunspor Analysis and Prediction

This first leg is expected to be a balanced contest between two teams with contrasting strengths. Shkendija will rely on their home form and defensive organization, while Samsunspor will look to exploit their attacking transitions, especially in the latter stages of the match. Both sides have shown a tendency toward low-scoring encounters in Europe, and the statistics strongly support another tight affair.

In the Europa Conference League, all six of Shkendija’s matches have produced fewer than three goals, while Samsunspor’s games have also generally stayed below that threshold. The Macedonian side’s resilience at home and the Turkish team’s cautious approach in away fixtures point toward a tactical battle with limited scoring opportunities. Given the narrow margins between the teams—Shkendija’s 37% win probability compared to Samsunspor’s 36%—a draw or a one-goal victory either way seems the most plausible outcome.

Fans can expect a disciplined and strategic encounter, where patience and defensive concentration will be key. The first leg may not deliver fireworks, but it will set the stage for an intense return match in Turkey.

Shkendija vs Samsunspor prediction by BetMines:
Under 2.5 goals with 51% probability.