While most football fans are eagerly awaiting the UEFA Nations League clashes featuring Europe's top eight teams, the competition also presents several crucial matches for other national teams. One such encounter takes place in Bratislava, where Slovakia faces Slovenia in the first leg of a two-match showdown (the return leg is scheduled for Sunday, the 23rd). This fixture will play a decisive role in shaping both teams' futures in the tournament. The home side, coached by Italian manager Francesco Calzona, has had a surprisingly strong Nations League campaign, finishing second in Group 3 of League C. This position grants them a chance to compete in this knockout match to earn promotion to League B. Meanwhile, Slovenia finds itself in a completely different situation—after finishing third in Group 3 of League B, they now risk relegation to a lower tier. A fiercely contested match is expected, with Slovakia, buoyed by home advantage and strong recent performances, aiming to secure a first-leg victory to gain an edge before traveling to Slovenia.

Slovakia's Shape and Key Statistics

Slovakia enters this match in excellent form, having finished second in their League C group behind Sweden with 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), scoring 10 goals and conceding 5.

These strong Nations League results are not entirely surprising, as Calzona’s team has lost only 4 of their last 15 matches, securing 8 wins and 3 draws. Additionally, Slovakia's qualification for the Round of 16 in the last European Championship further highlights their progress.

Slovenia's Shape and Key Statistics

Slovenia’s third-place finish in Group 3 of League B, behind Norway and Austria, was disappointing for their fans. Under head coach Matjaž Kek, the team collected 8 points in 6 matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring only 7 goals while conceding 5.

Notably, both of Slovenia’s victories came against Kazakhstan, the weakest team in the group. Away from home, Slovenia managed only a 1-1 draw against Austria and suffered a heavy 3-0 defeat in Norway.

Slovakia vs Slovenia Prediction and Tactical Overview

One of Slovakia’s biggest strengths is the presence of players with great personality and experience, such as David Hancko, who is attracting interest from top European clubs, and Stanislav Lobotka, the midfield maestro of Napoli, currently competing at the top of Serie A.

On the other hand, Slovenia’s hopes rest on the goal-scoring ability of Benjamin Šeško—who has already scored 17 goals this season for RB Leipzig—and the shot-stopping skills of their world-class goalkeeper, Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid.

The last two head-to-head encounters between Slovakia and Slovenia in 2021 ended in 1-1 and 2-2 draws. However, with Slovakia in better form, they could break their winless streak against Slovenia, which dates back to 2017.

This view is supported by BetMines' algorithm, which strongly favors a home victory.

• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Slovakia vs Slovenia predicts the 1 sign at 63%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Slovakia vs Slovenia predicts the X sign at 22%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Slovakia vs Slovenia predicts the 2 sign at 14%

Predicted Lineups Slovakia vs Slovenia

Slovakia (4-3-3): Dubravka; Gyomber, Vavro, Obert, Hancko; Bero, Lobotka, Bènes; Tupta, Bozenik, Suslov. Coach: Calzona.

Slovenia (4-4-2): Oblak; Janza, Bijol, Brekalo, Karnicnik; Elsnik, Cerin, Stojanovic, Horvat; Sesko, Vipotnik. Coach: Kek.