On Thursday, September 5, at the Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana, Slovenia and Sweden face off in the opening match of Group B of the European Qualifiers for the FIFA World Cup 2026. Despite being the first game, it already represents a crucial test for both teams, as the presence of Kosovo and Switzerland makes this one of the most balanced and unpredictable groups. The hosts aim to stay in contention for qualification, which will most likely involve Sweden and Switzerland, hoping for a slip-up from one of these two (or both) to secure at least second place and reach the playoffs. However, considering Slovenia’s disappointing run in the last Nations League, this mission looks difficult for now. Given this, getting a result in the debut against Sweden could completely change the scenario. Sweden, on the other hand, finally has a golden opportunity to return to the FIFA World Cup finals eight years after their last appearance, and they won’t want to waste it. The Blue and Yellow are entering a new cycle and boast a top-class attacking force with lethal forwards such as Gyokeres and Isak—targeted this summer by Arsenal and Liverpool, respectively. After earning promotion in the Nations League last November, Sweden are now called to confirm their progress by returning from Slovenia with three points, sending a clear and strong message to Switzerland.

Slovenia's recent form and key stats

Slovenia failed to impress in the last edition of the Nations League, finishing third in League B Group 3 with 8 points behind Norway and Austria. However, Matjaz Kek’s men avoided relegation by winning the playoff against Slovakia 1-0 thanks to an extra-time goal from Gnezda Cerin.

In early June, Slovenia played two friendlies, beating Luxembourg 1-0 and Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1. Ahead of this tricky clash with Sweden, home advantage could prove decisive. Slovenia have lost just once in their last 13 home matches.

Sweden's recent form and key stats

Sweden are enjoying a strong run of form, having earned promotion to League B of the Nations League last November. The Blue and Yellow topped their group with 16 points from six games, recording 5 wins and 1 draw, with an impressive scoring average of 3.17 goals per match while conceding just 0.67.

To maintain match rhythm, Jon Dahl Tomasson’s men played four friendlies in March and June. The results: one surprising defeat against Luxembourg (1-0) and three wins over Northern Ireland (5-1), Hungary (2-0), and Algeria (4-3). Looking only at official matches, Gyokeres and his teammates are unbeaten in seven games, with six wins and one draw.

Slovenia vs Sweden prediction and tactical overview

The prediction for Slovenia vs Sweden points to a balanced and hard-fought clash, but with the visitors favored to avoid defeat, likely earning either a draw or a narrow victory.

According to the BetMines algorithm, the best betting tip is Double Chance X2. This aligns with the two previous head-to-head encounters, which ended in one Swedish win and one draw—never a Slovenian victory.

Beyond the head-to-head record, Sweden are also favorites thanks to their recent positive results and superior squad quality, with many players established in Europe’s top five leagues such as the Premier League and Serie A.

A particularly intriguing individual battle will be between Benjamin Sesko and Viktor Gyokeres, both signed last summer by Manchester United and Arsenal to solve long-standing attacking issues.

• Slovenia vs Sweden prediction by BetMines: Double Chance X2 with 70% probability

Probable lineups Slovenia vs Sweden

SLOVENIA (4-3-3): Oblak; Zarnicnik, Drkusic, D. Brekalo, Zec; Lovric, Horvat, Elsnik; Sporar, Sesko, Vipotnik. Coach: Matjaz Kek

SWEDEN (3-5-2): Johansson; Sema, Dahl, Svensson; Ayari, Elanga, Saletros, Karlstrom, Nanasi; Larsson, Gyokeres. Coach: Jon Dahl Tomasson