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Prediction published on Apr 3, 2026 3:05 AM by Dario in England - FA Cup | Modified on Apr 3, 2026 3:05 AM
The FA Cup quarter-final between Southampton and Arsenal promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the weekend. Taking place at St. Mary’s Stadium on Saturday, April 4, this clash brings together two sides in strong form but with contrasting ambitions. Southampton are chasing promotion back to the Premier League while also maintaining an impressive unbeaten streak, whereas Arsenal are looking to bounce back from their League Cup final disappointment and continue their pursuit of silverware. Both teams have shown consistency in front of goal, suggesting a lively encounter could be on the cards.
Southampton enter this FA Cup quarter-final in excellent shape, unbeaten in their last 14 matches across all competitions and winning 11 of them. Their most recent outing was a 2-0 victory over Oxford United on March 21, a result that underlined their efficiency and defensive solidity. In the FA Cup this season, the Saints have recorded 2 wins and 1 draw, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, they have been particularly strong, winning at half time in each of their last three matches and maintaining a consistent attacking rhythm.
Southampton’s attacking line has been reliable, with at least one goal scored in each of their last 16 matches. Their ability to find the net in the second half has also been notable, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in their last 12 FA Cup fixtures. The team’s home matches tend to be lively affairs, averaging over 7.5 corners in each of their last 18 games at St. Mary’s. These statistics highlight a side that combines attacking intent with tactical discipline, capable of challenging even the strongest opponents.
However, the Saints face a few challenges ahead of this crucial tie. Several key players are unavailable due to injuries and suspensions, including Flynn Downes and Matsuki Kuryu, both suspended after their bookings in the previous round. Captain Jack Stephens is also sidelined with an injury, joining Leo Scienza, Alex McCarthy, Jay Robinson, and Mads Roerslev on the absentee list. Despite these setbacks, Southampton’s depth and momentum could still make them a formidable opponent for Arsenal.
Arsenal arrive at St. Mary’s after a two-week break that followed their 2-0 defeat to Manchester City in the League Cup final. That loss ended a 14-match unbeaten run, but the Gunners have shown resilience throughout the season, responding to each of their previous defeats with a victory. In the FA Cup, Arsenal have been dominant, winning all three of their matches so far with an average of 3.3 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded per game. Their attacking power and defensive organization make them one of the favorites to lift the trophy.
On the road, Arsenal’s record is equally impressive. They have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 away matches and have scored in 19 of those outings. The Gunners have also been strong starters, winning at half time in their last three FA Cup games and in 9 of their last 14 away fixtures. Although their defense has been one of the best in the Premier League, they have conceded in seven of their last ten matches, suggesting that Southampton’s attack could find opportunities.
Arsenal’s squad depth will be tested, as several players returned from international duty with injury concerns. Noni Madueke is ruled out with a head injury, while captain Martin Odegaard and midfielder Mikel Merino are also unavailable. Nevertheless, the Gunners can rely on their attacking options, including forward Viktor Gyokeres, who scored four times during the international break. With their strong mentality and attacking firepower, Arsenal will aim to reassert their dominance and secure a place in the semi-finals.
This quarter-final is expected to be a high-intensity contest. Southampton will look to capitalize on their home advantage and maintain their unbeaten streak, while Arsenal will aim to impose their rhythm early and exploit any defensive gaps. The Saints’ recent form suggests they will not shy away from attacking, especially given their consistent scoring record. However, their defensive absences could leave them vulnerable against Arsenal’s dynamic forward line.
Arsenal’s approach will likely focus on controlling possession and pressing high, forcing Southampton into mistakes. Given both teams’ recent scoring trends, the match could feature goals at both ends. The Gunners’ experience in knockout competitions and their ability to respond positively after setbacks make them slight favorites, but Southampton’s resilience and home form ensure that this will be far from a straightforward task.
Considering both teams’ attacking consistency and recent defensive records, this FA Cup quarter-final is expected to produce goals. Southampton have been prolific at home, while Arsenal rarely fail to score away. The combination of Southampton’s home momentum and Arsenal’s offensive strength points towards an open and entertaining match.
Southampton vs Arsenal prediction by BetMines:
Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 53% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Southampton
Arsenal
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
1
9
5
5
2.5
2
8
6
4
3.5
6
4
10
0
4.5
9
1
10
0