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Prediction published on Feb 12, 2026 1:03 PM by Dario in England - FA Cup | Modified on Feb 12, 2026 1:03 PM
The FA Cup fourth round brings an exciting rematch between Southampton and Leicester City, just days after their thrilling EFL Championship encounter. The two sides meet again at St. Mary’s Stadium, where the hosts will look to extend their unbeaten run and confirm their dominance over the Foxes this season. With both teams having already advanced from the third round, this clash promises goals, intensity, and a strong desire for progression in England’s oldest cup competition.
Southampton enter this FA Cup tie in excellent form, having won four of their last five matches and drawn the other. Their recent 4-3 away victory over Leicester in the league was a statement of resilience, as they overturned a three-goal deficit to claim all three points. That result extended their unbeaten streak to five games, underlining their growing confidence and attacking efficiency.
In the FA Cup, the Saints began their campaign with a 3-2 win over Doncaster Rovers, showing both their offensive potential and occasional defensive vulnerability. Their season averages in the competition stand at 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. At home, Southampton have been consistent in producing entertaining football — Over 7.5 corners have been recorded in each of their last 17 home fixtures, while Over 0.5 goals in the second half have occurred in their last 10 FA Cup games. Despite a few low-scoring exceptions, with Under 0.5 goals in four of their last 17 home matches, the general trend points toward open, attacking contests.
Currently ranked first in the FA Cup standings, Southampton’s momentum and home advantage could prove decisive. Their ability to recover from setbacks, as seen in the recent league encounter, makes them a dangerous opponent for any side.
Leicester City approach this fixture seeking redemption after their dramatic 3-4 home defeat to Southampton earlier in the week. That loss extended their winless streak to six matches, including four consecutive defeats. The Foxes have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five outings, while scoring only 1.2 on average.
In the FA Cup, however, Leicester’s record remains perfect so far. They began their campaign with a solid 2-0 away win against Cheltenham, maintaining a clean sheet and showing glimpses of their potential. Their season averages in the competition are 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per match. Historically, Leicester have been strong starters in this tournament, having led at half time in their last three FA Cup matches. Yet, their defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly — they have conceded at least one goal in 26 of their last 27 matches across all competitions.
Leicester’s attacking style ensures entertainment: Over 1.5 goals have been scored in each of their last 21 matches, and the same trend applies to their last 10 away fixtures. Moreover, Over 0.5 goals at half time have been recorded in 25 of their last 27 games. Despite their poor recent form, the Foxes remain capable of finding the net, making them a constant threat in transition.
The recent head-to-head history between these two sides has been full of goals and drama. Their last meeting ended 4-3 in favor of Southampton, and the overall record shows Leicester with three wins and Southampton with two in their last five encounters. The Saints have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in their last five matches, while Leicester’s defensive record continues to be a concern.
Given both teams’ attacking tendencies and defensive lapses, another high-scoring affair seems likely. Southampton’s home advantage and current form make them slight favorites, but Leicester’s need for a response could push them to attack from the start. The data also supports an open game: both sides have been involved in matches with Over 2.5 goals in more than half of their recent fixtures, and Leicester’s matches frequently feature goals at both ends.
With Southampton’s confidence soaring and Leicester desperate to end their poor run, this FA Cup clash promises excitement and unpredictability. The Saints will aim to make it three wins in a row against the Foxes, while the visitors will look to rediscover the form that once made them FA Cup champions.
Southampton vs Leicester City prediction by BetMines:
Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Southampton
Leicester City
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
1
9
1.5
1
9
3
7
2.5
2
8
7
3
3.5
6
4
7
3
4.5
9
1
10
0