Southampton host West Ham United in the second round of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Kick-off is scheduled for 18:45 at St. Mary's Stadium. Both clubs came through the opening round, with Southampton overcoming Colchester and West Ham defeating Portsmouth 3-1. The latest meeting between these sides ended in a 1-1 draw on April 19, 2025, and the available statistics suggest another competitive contest in which both attacks could have opportunities.

The teams have experienced contrasting recent runs. Southampton have won four of their last five matches, while West Ham United have recorded one victory, three draws and one defeat across the same period. However, the match-result probabilities remain relatively close: Southampton have a 40% chance of winning, compared with 34% for West Ham and 26% for a draw. That balance makes this Carabao Cup fixture difficult to assess purely through the 1X2 market.

Southampton Recent Form and Key Statistics

Southampton enter the match after beating Stoke City 3-1 on August 22. Their first league defeat of the campaign had come in a 2-1 result against Watford, but the response against Stoke restored momentum ahead of this cup assignment. Along with their opening-round success over Colchester, those results mean Southampton have scored at least twice in each of their three matches this term.

The broader form figures are encouraging for the home side. Southampton's last five matches have produced four victories and one defeat, with averages of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their Carabao Cup record this season stands at one win from one, accompanied by averages of 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded.

Home form provides another strong part of Southampton's case. They have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 home matches and have not lost in 26 of their previous 28 fixtures overall. Their scoring consistency is equally notable: Southampton have found the net in each of their last 15 home games and in 29 of their last 30 matches at all venues. The supplied match context also shows that they are unbeaten across their last 12 appearances at St. Mary's in all competitions, scoring two or more goals in nine of those fixtures.

• Four wins from Southampton's last five matches.
• At least one Southampton goal in each of their previous 15 home games.
• No defeat in 19 of their last 20 home matches.
• More than 7.5 corners in 19 of Southampton's last 20 home fixtures.

That combination of results and scoring form gives Southampton a credible platform. Their recent matches have not been flawless, as they conceded against both Watford and Stoke City, but their ability to score regularly has remained intact. With the hosts priced at 2.55 to win and the draw available at 3.50, the odds also reflect a fixture without an overwhelming favourite.

West Ham United Recent Form and Key Statistics

West Ham United travel after a 2-1 defeat against Charlton Athletic on August 22. Before that setback, they drew 2-2 away to Burnley and opened their Carabao Cup campaign by beating Portsmouth 3-1. Those three results have featured 10 goals in total, with West Ham scoring in every match but also conceding each time.

The visitors have one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five outings. During that sequence, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. In this season's Carabao Cup, their record is one victory from one match, with averages of 3.0 goals for and 1.0 against following the first-round result.

West Ham's recent away record is less convincing. They are winless in their last five competitive matches away from home and failed to score in three games during that run. Nevertheless, their 2-2 draw at Burnley showed that they can create and convert chances on the road. Only two of West Ham's last 10 away matches ended without a goal from the visitors, another figure that keeps their scoring prospects relevant despite the winless sequence.

Defensive results are the greater concern. West Ham have conceded five times across their three matches this season, allowing three to Portsmouth, two to Burnley and two to Charlton across the respective scorelines. Although the opening-round victory demonstrated attacking strength, the absence of a clean sheet so far leaves room for Southampton's consistent home scoring record to influence the tie.

Southampton vs West Ham United Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head figures reinforce the sense of a closely matched contest. The last meeting finished 1-1, while the five-match summary from Southampton's perspective shows one win, two draws and two defeats. Across those meetings, Southampton averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per match. No clear historical advantage emerges from that sequence.

Goals are the strongest theme in the current data. Southampton have scored at least twice in all three of their games this term but failed to keep a clean sheet in the latest two. West Ham have also scored in each of their first three matches while conceding five goals. The statistical projections assign 59% to both teams scoring and the same 59% probability to over 2.5 goals. The listed odds are 1.57 for both teams to score and 1.66 for over 2.5 goals.

Southampton's home consistency may give them a narrow edge, but West Ham's scoring record this season makes a one-sided assessment difficult. The visitors have defensive weaknesses to address, yet their results against Portsmouth, Burnley and Charlton all contained goals for both sides. Southampton's recent 2-1 and 3-1 league scorelines have followed the same pattern.

Corners may also be worth monitoring because over 7.5 corners occurred in 19 of Southampton's previous 20 home matches. Even so, the goal trends are more directly supported by the current performances of both teams. Southampton's long scoring run at home meets a West Ham side that has found the net in every game this campaign, while neither defence kept a clean sheet in its last two league fixtures. Those indicators make a goal at each end the most coherent conclusion.

Southampton vs West Ham United prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 59% probability.