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Prediction published on Mar 17, 2026 9:07 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa Conference League | Modified on Mar 17, 2026 9:07 PM
The second leg of the Europa Conference League round of 16 brings an exciting clash between Sparta Praha and AZ Alkmaar. After a narrow 2-1 defeat in the first leg, the Czech side return home determined to overturn the deficit and reach the quarter-finals for the first time in a decade. The Maroons have shown impressive strength at home throughout the competition, and their supporters will expect another dominant performance to keep their European dream alive.
Sparta Praha approach this decisive encounter in solid form, having recently defeated Slovácko 5-2 on March 15, 2026. Over their last five matches, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. In the Europa Conference League, their campaign has been consistent, with a record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, averaging 1.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
Home advantage has been a major factor in Sparta’s success. They have won at half time in their last four home matches and have not lost at half time in 18 of their last 20 games. Their attacking rhythm at home has been particularly impressive, with two consecutive 5-2 victories in front of their fans. The team’s ability to start strong and maintain control early in matches could be crucial in this second leg.
With the aggregate score standing at 2-1, Sparta know that a one-goal win could send the tie into extra time, while a two-goal margin would secure qualification outright. Their attacking momentum and home consistency make them a strong contender to turn the tie around.
AZ Alkmaar travel to Prague with a slender advantage from the first leg, thanks to their late winner. However, their away record in this season’s Conference League raises some concerns. Out of four away fixtures, they have lost three, conceding heavily in several of them. Despite this, they remain a dangerous side capable of scoring goals, as shown by their recent 4-0 win over Heracles Almelo on March 15, 2026.
In their last five matches, AZ have achieved three wins and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their overall European record this season stands at 10 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with an average of 2.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per match. The Dutch side’s attacking potential is clear, but their defensive stability away from home remains questionable.
AZ’s attacking approach often leads to open, high-scoring games, but their defensive lapses on the road could be exploited by Sparta’s aggressive home style. Managing the tempo and avoiding early pressure will be key if they are to protect their aggregate lead and advance to the next round.
This second leg promises to be an intense and high-energy contest. Sparta Praha will look to impose their rhythm early, using their strong home record and attacking depth to unsettle the visitors. Their ability to dominate first halves could play a decisive role, especially given AZ’s tendency to concede after the break. On the other hand, AZ Alkmaar will rely on their efficiency in front of goal and hope to exploit spaces on the counterattack.
Both teams have shown attacking intent throughout the competition, and the statistics suggest that goals are likely. With both sides averaging close to two goals per match and the first leg already producing three goals, another open encounter can be expected. The Czech side’s home momentum and AZ’s inconsistent away form point towards a potential home victory, though the Dutch team’s offensive quality ensures that the tie remains finely balanced.
In terms of head-to-head, the first leg ended 2-1 in favor of AZ, meaning Sparta will need to win by at least one goal to stay alive in the competition. Given their scoring record and home dominance, the hosts appear well-positioned to achieve that.
Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar prediction by BetMines:
Home Win (1) with 55% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Sparta Praha
AZ
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
3
7
1
9
2.5
7
3
3
7
3.5
7
3
6
4
4.5
9
1
9
1