The upcoming Serie B clash between Spezia and Modena promises to be a tense and strategic encounter. Once considered a straightforward fixture in favor of the visitors, the balance has shifted in recent weeks. The home side have rediscovered confidence after back-to-back 1-0 victories in regional derbies, while Modena arrive at the Stadio Picco searching for answers following a dip in form. With both teams fighting for crucial points at opposite ends of the table, this match could have significant implications for their respective campaigns.

Spezia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Spezia have shown signs of revival after a difficult start to the season. Their recent 0-1 win against Virtus Entella on December 8 marked their second consecutive victory, both achieved with clean sheets. Over their last five matches, the Ligurian side have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. These results have lifted them to 17th place in Serie B with 14 points, just one point away from safety.

Across the season, Spezia’s record stands at 3 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, with an average of 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match. Their main strength in recent weeks has been defensive solidity, a key factor in their mini-resurgence. However, their home form remains a concern, as they have collected only six points at the Picco, the lowest home tally in the league. To continue their climb up the table, Spezia must find a way to turn their home ground into an advantage.

• Ranking: 17th in Serie B


• Last 5 matches: 2W – 1D – 2L


• Average goals: 0.9 scored / 1.3 conceded


• Last match: 0-1 win vs Virtus Entella (away)

Modena’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Modena have experienced a noticeable downturn after a strong start that once saw them near the top of the table. They currently sit 6th with 26 points, but recent results have been disappointing. The 1-2 defeat to Catanzaro on December 8 was their second consecutive loss, following a similar setback against Cesena. In their last five matches, Modena have managed 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.0 per game.

Despite their solid defensive record this season — only 0.7 goals conceded per match — the team’s attacking output has declined. They have also struggled in the first halves of away games, having trailed at halftime in their last four away fixtures. This pattern could be a concern against a Spezia side that has recently found momentum. Nevertheless, Modena’s overall season record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 3 defeats still reflects a team capable of competing for promotion if they can rediscover consistency.

• Ranking: 6th in Serie B


• Last 5 matches: 1W – 2D – 2L


• Average goals: 1.5 scored / 0.7 conceded (season)


• Last match: 1-2 loss vs Catanzaro (home)

Head-to-Head and Match Analysis

The historical record between these two sides favors Spezia, who remain unbeaten in their last five meetings with 2 wins and 3 draws. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 on February 15, 2025. On average, these matches have been low-scoring, with Spezia netting 0.8 goals per game and conceding just 0.4.

Given both teams’ current trajectories, this fixture is expected to be a tight and tactical battle. Spezia’s recent improvement in defense contrasts with Modena’s recent struggles in attack, suggesting that chances may be limited. The home side will aim to extend their unbeaten run and climb out of the relegation zone, while Modena will be desperate to halt their slide and maintain their playoff position. A draw would not be a disastrous result for either, but both sides have reasons to push for all three points.

• Last head-to-head: 1-1 (February 15, 2025)


• Head-to-head record: Spezia 2W – 3D – 0L


• Average goals in H2H: 1.2 per match

BetMines Prediction and Betting Insight

Based on statistical trends and recent performances, this match is likely to feature few goals. Spezia’s attack remains modest, while Modena’s defense has been one of the best in the league despite recent setbacks. The data supports a cautious outlook, with Under 2.5 goals emerging as the most probable outcome.

Spezia vs Modena prediction by BetMines:
Under 2.5 goals with 59% probability.