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Prediction published on Jul 23, 2026 4:02 PM by Dario in Peru - Primera Division | Modified on Jul 23, 2026 4:02 PM
The second round of the Peruvian Clausura takes us to Callao, where Sport Boys will host Asociación Deportiva Tarma (ADT) in a match that promises intensity and physicality. The home side arrives after a narrow 1-0 defeat against Los Chankas, a result that exposed their lack of attacking sharpness. Despite this setback, the “Rosados” remain strong at home, where they have gone six matches unbeaten. Their defensive discipline and combative style have been key, although their tendency to collect cards — averaging 4.5 per game in the Apertura — remains a concern.
Sport Boys currently sit 14th in the Primera División standings. Their recent form shows a balanced record, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat in their last five matches. During this stretch, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game, highlighting a solid defensive structure. Over the entire season, their record stands at 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
However, one of the most striking statistics is their difficulty in taking early control of matches: Sport Boys have failed to win at half time in 19 of their last 20 league games. This trend suggests a cautious approach in the opening stages, often relying on second-half improvements. In terms of goals, under 0.5 total goals have been recorded in 3 of their last 14 league matches, and in 2 of their last 10 home fixtures. These numbers reinforce the idea of a team that prefers tight, low-scoring encounters.
At home, the Callao side have built a reputation for resilience. Their unbeaten run of six matches as hosts reflects a strong mentality and the ability to grind out results even when not at their best. The crowd’s support often fuels their intensity, especially in matches that tend to become physical battles. Maintaining that home invincibility will be crucial as they look to climb the table and regain confidence after their recent defeat.
ADT, known as the “Vendaval Celeste,” come into this fixture after a 2-1 home loss to Universitario in their Clausura debut. That match also exposed some disciplinary issues, as they finished with ten men following a red card. Despite the setback, ADT’s overall form remains competitive: 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats in their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their season record mirrors that of Sport Boys — 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses — but with a slightly higher scoring average of 1.3 goals per match.
ADT’s away performances have been mixed. While they have shown the ability to score on the road, they have also struggled to maintain defensive consistency. In their last 10 away league matches, under 0.5 total goals have been recorded twice, suggesting that their games often open up after the first half. Historically, their visits to Callao have been difficult: ADT have never beaten Sport Boys away from home, a psychological barrier they will be eager to overcome.
Matches between these two sides are traditionally physical affairs. In fact, their last nine head-to-head encounters have seen over 4.5 cards in eight of them. The most recent meeting ended 1-0 in February 2026, reflecting once again the narrow margins that usually define this rivalry. The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced — 2 wins each and 1 draw — with both teams averaging 0.8 goals scored and conceded per match in those duels.
This fixture is expected to be a tense and hard-fought battle. Sport Boys will rely on their home strength and defensive organization to control the rhythm, while ADT will look to exploit transitions and set pieces. Given both teams’ similar records and their tendency toward low-scoring games, the match could hinge on small details — a defensive lapse, a moment of individual brilliance, or even disciplinary issues.
The physical nature of their previous encounters suggests that cards will once again play a role. Both sides have shown a pattern of aggressive play, and maintaining composure could be decisive. For Sport Boys, extending their unbeaten home streak is a priority, while ADT will aim to break their historical drought in Callao. The balance of probabilities slightly favors the hosts, who combine defensive solidity with the psychological edge of home advantage.
Sport Boys vs ADT prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Sport Boys win (1) with a probability of 51%. The draw (X) follows at 27%, while an ADT win (2) stands at 22%.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Sport Boys
ADT
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
6
4
3
7
2.5
7
3
4
6
3.5
8
2
7
3
4.5
9
1
9
1