The fifth round of the Peruvian Apertura brings an intriguing clash at the Miguel Grau Stadium in Callao, where Sport Boys host UCV Moquegua. Both sides are looking to climb the table after inconsistent starts to the season. The home team, known as the “Rosados,” have struggled to find rhythm in front of goal, while the visitors, nicknamed the “Fuerza del Sur,” are still adapting to the demands of top-flight football. With both teams eager to secure valuable points, this encounter promises intensity and determination from start to finish.

Sport Boys’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Sport Boys enter this fixture sitting 13th in the Primera División standings, having collected one win, one draw, and two defeats so far. Their most recent outing ended in a narrow 1-0 loss against Alianza Lima on February 21, a result that highlighted their ongoing offensive struggles. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded one victory, one draw, and three defeats, averaging just 0.4 goals scored per game while conceding 0.8.

At home, the Rosados have found it difficult to keep clean sheets, conceding at least once in four of their last five matches in Callao. Their attack has also lacked precision, with only two goals scored in their first four league games. Despite these challenges, playing in front of their supporters could provide the boost they need to rediscover their scoring touch and move away from the lower half of the table.

• Ranking: 13th in Primera División


• Season record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses


• Average goals scored: 0.5 per match


• Average goals conceded: 0.8 per match

UCV Moquegua’s Recent Form and Key Stats

UCV Moquegua arrive in Callao with renewed confidence after earning their first-ever top-flight victory, a 1-0 home win over Deportivo Garcilaso on February 23. However, their defensive issues remain a concern, as they have conceded eight goals in their first four league matches. The team currently sits 17th in the standings, with one win and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.

On the road, Moquegua’s record is worrying. They have managed to win only one of their last ten away fixtures, a statistic that underlines their vulnerability when playing outside their home ground. Nevertheless, their attacking output has shown signs of improvement, with an average of 1.2 goals scored per match in their last five outings. The key for the visitors will be to tighten their defense while maintaining their offensive momentum.

• Ranking: 17th in Primera División


• Season record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses


• Average goals scored: 0.8 per match


• Average goals conceded: 2.0 per match


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half: in each of their last 12 matches

Sport Boys vs UCV Moquegua Analysis and Prediction

This matchup brings together two teams with contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Sport Boys have been more solid defensively but lack efficiency in attack, while UCV Moquegua have shown more offensive intent but remain fragile at the back. The home advantage could play a decisive role, especially considering Moquegua’s poor away record and the Rosados’ need to bounce back after their recent defeat.

Given the statistical trends, a low-scoring encounter seems likely. Sport Boys’ matches have averaged fewer than two goals per game, and Moquegua’s defensive instability could still allow the hosts to find the net. However, the visitors’ tendency to concede late goals—evidenced by consistent second-half scoring in their fixtures—suggests that the game might open up as it progresses.

According to the latest probabilities, Sport Boys have a 58% chance of winning, the draw stands at 25%, and UCV Moquegua’s chances are estimated at 17%. The Under 2.5 goals outcome appears slightly more likely at 58%, while Both Teams To Score – No is favored at 57%. These figures align with the teams’ recent performances and goal averages.

Overall, the Rosados seem better positioned to take advantage of their home ground and secure a much-needed victory. Moquegua’s defensive frailties could once again prove costly, especially if Sport Boys manage to convert their chances early in the match.

Sport Boys vs UCV Moquegua prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with 58% probability.