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Sunderland
7:00 PM
September 16, 2026
AZ Alkmaar
Prediction published on Sep 14, 2026 7:39 PM by Dario in Europe - Europa League | Modified on Sep 14, 2026 7:39 PM
Sunderland return to European competition for the first time in 53 years when they host AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League on September 16, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 local time. This will be only Sunderland’s second European campaign, following their appearance in the 1973/74 European Cup Winners’ Cup, which ended in the second round. The occasion at the Stadium of Light will therefore carry considerable significance, but the hosts enter the fixture after an inconsistent opening to the season. AZ Alkmaar arrive in much stronger form, having won four of their last five matches and remained unbeaten throughout that sequence. With Sunderland ranked fifth and AZ 13th in the Europa League, the match presents an intriguing contrast between the competition standings and the teams’ recent performances.
Sunderland qualified for the Europa League by finishing seventh in the Premier League last season, securing their European place on the final day. Their new domestic campaign has been less convincing, producing one victory from the opening four league fixtures described in the available match information. They began with a 2-1 defeat away to Ipswich Town before recording a 1-0 win against Fulham. A 1-1 draw at Brentford followed, while they also defeated Hull City at home in the Carabao Cup.
The Black Cats’ most recent result was a 2-0 home defeat against Arsenal on September 12. Across their last five matches, Sunderland have registered two wins, one draw and two defeats. Their attacking output during that period has been modest at 0.8 goals scored per game, while they have conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Those numbers underline the need for greater efficiency in front of goal, particularly against an AZ side carrying significant attacking momentum.
The European fixture also falls in the middle of a demanding sequence. Sunderland faced Arsenal at the weekend and are due to travel to Manchester City after this game. The supplied information indicates that coach Regis Le Bris may consider resting some players rather than asking the same group to complete three difficult matches within a week. No changes have been confirmed, but squad management could become an important part of Sunderland’s preparations for their European return.
AZ Alkmaar travel to Sunderland after making an impressive start to their domestic season. They collected five victories from their first six league matches and were second in the Dutch Eredivisie after that run. Their sequence of five consecutive league wins ended on September 11 with a 1-1 home draw against Willem II, but that result still preserved their unbeaten start.
The visitors’ broader numbers are particularly strong. AZ have produced four wins and one draw in their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.0 goals per game while conceding 1.2. They are also unbeaten in their last 12 competitive fixtures since losing in the quarter-finals of last season’s Conference League. That combination of consistency and attacking output makes them a serious challenge for a Sunderland team that has divided its last five games evenly between positive results and defeats.
Away performances provide AZ with another source of encouragement. Although the Dutch club have experienced difficulties on their travels in the past, they won each of their first three away league games this season. Their scoring trends are equally notable: more than 1.5 total goals have been recorded in 23 of their last 24 matches. In addition, at least one second-half goal has occurred in 30 of their previous 33 games, suggesting that their fixtures frequently remain active after the interval.
The atmosphere surrounding Sunderland’s return to Europe should give the home side added motivation, but recent form points towards a demanding evening. The Black Cats have averaged fewer than one goal per match across their latest five fixtures and come into this contest immediately after being held scoreless by Arsenal. Their record during that sequence is mixed rather than poor, yet they will need to improve their attacking production to place sustained pressure on AZ.
AZ Alkmaar, by contrast, have been combining positive results with a much higher scoring average. Their draw against Willem II interrupted a five-match winning start in the league, but it did not fundamentally change the strength of their current run. An unbeaten sequence of 12 competitive matches, together with three consecutive away league victories at the beginning of the season, demonstrates that the visitors have handled different settings effectively.
The available goal indicators also suggest that the contest could develop as it progresses. AZ’s matches have exceeded 1.5 total goals in 23 of the last 24 cases, while 30 of their last 33 have featured a second-half goal. The probability data gives Over 2.5 goals a 57% chance and Both Teams To Score a 55% chance. However, Sunderland’s recent average of 0.8 goals scored introduces some uncertainty over whether the hosts can make a full contribution to a high-scoring game.
In the result market, the figures assign Sunderland a 31% chance of victory, the draw 23% and AZ Alkmaar 46%. The visitors’ superior recent record, greater scoring output and perfect start across their first three away league games provide the clearest basis for the final assessment. Sunderland’s European homecoming is an important occasion, but AZ arrive with the stronger set of current performance indicators.
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar prediction from BetMines: AZ Alkmaar win (2) with 46% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Sunderland
AZ Alkmaar
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
4
6
0
10
2.5
7
3
4
6
3.5
9
1
4
6
4.5
9
1
6
4