Sunderland host Brentford at the Stadium of Light on October 28, 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 local time. This fourth-round Carabao Cup tie is their second meeting of the season, following a 1-1 draw on September 5. Sunderland are looking to regain momentum after a goalless draw with Leeds United, while Brentford arrive after drawing 1-1 with Hull City. Both sides are winless in their last three matches, but their routes to this round and recent scoring records give this Sunderland vs Brentford preview an intriguing contrast.

Sunderland's Recent Form and Key Stats

Sunderland reached the fourth round with a 1-0 win over Hull City. That remains their only Carabao Cup match this season, leaving them with one win, one goal scored and none conceded in the competition. Results across their wider schedule have been less convincing: they have won four of 12 matches this season, including two of the eight played since the Hull victory.

The Black Cats have taken one win, two draws and two defeats from their last five outings, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. They have failed to score in two of their three most recent games, the latest of which was the 0-0 draw against Leeds on October 25. Creating and converting chances will therefore be an important part of their attempt to progress.

Sunderland's schedule spans the Europa League, Premier League and Carabao Cup, and the available match information also identifies at least six injured players, most of whom could miss this tie. Their home matches have shown a recurring first-half pattern, with Sunderland level at half-time in each of their last six. A goalless 90 minutes has been less common at home: only two of their last 10 home games have finished with under 0.5 total goals. There has also been at least one second-half goal in 19 of Sunderland's last 21 matches.

Brentford's Recent Form and Key Stats

Brentford have won both of their Carabao Cup matches this season, beating Birmingham 6-1 and Leeds United 2-1. Those results give them competition averages of 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their wider record is similarly steady: they have lost just once in 10 matches this season.

The Bees have not won any of their last three fixtures, though they scored in each of them. A 2-2 draw with Aston Villa was followed by a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool and then a 1-1 draw with Hull City on October 25. Across their last five matches, Brentford have recorded two wins, two draws and one loss, scoring an average of 1.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2. That scoring return compares favourably with Sunderland's 0.6-goal average over the same span.

Brentford have scored at least once in each of their last 12 matches, while every one of their last 15 games has featured more than 1.5 total goals. Each of those 15 matches has also produced a second-half goal. In the Carabao Cup specifically, their last 11 games have had at least one first-half goal, and Brentford have led at the interval in seven of their last 10. Those trends stand in contrast to Sunderland's run of six consecutive home matches level at half-time.

Sunderland vs Brentford Match Analysis

The most recent head-to-head ended 1-1, and Brentford avoided defeat in both of this year's previous meetings, winning one. The broader five-match head-to-head summary from Sunderland's perspective stands at one win, two draws and two defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Those figures add context to this cup meeting without settling it: the latest encounter showed that Sunderland can hold Brentford, even if they have yet to beat them this year.

The central question is whether Sunderland can improve their recent attacking output against a side that has scored consistently. Sunderland's 1-0 cup win over Hull showed they can advance in a tight game, but Brentford's two cup victories have brought eight goals, and their current run of scoring in 12 straight matches gives them a different kind of platform. Brentford are also seeking a return to winning ways after three games without a victory, so neither side arrives with uninterrupted momentum.

The supplied win probabilities place Brentford at 49%, Sunderland at 27% and the draw at 24%. Brentford's stronger recent scoring figures, two wins in this season's Carabao Cup and unbeaten record against Sunderland in their two latest meetings make the visitors the more compelling choice, despite Sunderland's home advantage. A competitive contest remains possible given that both teams drew their most recent fixtures.

Sunderland vs Brentford prediction from BetMines: Brentford win (2) with 49% probability.