Switzerland host Scotland at Kybunpark in St. Gallen on Monday, November 16, with the UEFA Nations League Group B1 campaign reaching its final match. The hosts have already secured first place and promotion to League A after taking 13 points from five games. Scotland arrive with a different objective: Friday’s 2-1 win over North Macedonia kept their promotion play-off hopes alive, but they must win here and hope Slovenia lose to North Macedonia. Switzerland won the reverse fixture 3-0, yet the contrasting stakes could make this a more open contest.

Switzerland’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Switzerland dropped points in this Nations League campaign for the first time on Friday, drawing 0-0 away to Slovenia after four consecutive victories. Their record of four wins and one draw has been accompanied by averages of 2.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per match. Murat Yakin’s side can approach the finale knowing that neither their group position nor their promotion depends on the result.

The hosts’ broader record is also strong: Switzerland are unbeaten in their last 18 matches and have avoided defeat in 19 of their last 20 home games. They have scored at least once in 19 of those 20 home fixtures, while over 1.5 total goals were recorded in 19 of them. Those numbers offer a clear contrast with Friday’s goalless draw, although Switzerland have kept just one clean sheet in their last six matches on home soil.

Switzerland have led League B in average possession at 66.2% and shots on target per 90 minutes at 7.2. After five games, they have also recorded the competition’s lowest xGA at 1.2 and the second-highest xG at 7.3. Dan Ndoye has supplied five goal contributions, the most in League B, and has averaged 2.4 shots on target per 90 minutes. With first place assured, Yakin may consider changes, but Switzerland’s recent home scoring record remains a significant part of this match preview.

Scotland’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Scotland travel to St. Gallen after John McGinn scored twice in their 2-1 victory over North Macedonia on Friday. That result moved Sébastien Pocognoli’s side within a point of second-placed Slovenia. Their Nations League record stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Across their last five matches, Scotland have won twice, drawn once and lost twice.

Creating chances has not always translated into goals for the visitors. Scotland have the best xG in League B at 11.1 but have scored only five times and missed a competition-high 15 big chances. McGinn has an xG of 2.3, the third-highest figure in League B, and is Scotland’s first-choice penalty taker. Friday’s brace demonstrated how important his finishing could be in a match Scotland need to win.

Che Adams made his first appearance of this Nations League campaign against North Macedonia and created three big chances, including the opportunity for McGinn’s opening goal. Scott McTominay also had an advanced role in that game, leading Scotland for shots with five, shots on target with two and touches in the opposition box with eight. The visitors are unbeaten in their two away matches in this competition, though they now face a Switzerland side that beat them 3-0 in September.

Switzerland vs Scotland Match Analysis

Switzerland’s results and underlying figures give them a strong foundation for this fixture. They have taken 13 of the 15 available points in the group, conceded very little across those five matches and regularly scored at home. The reverse meeting is another point in their favor: Switzerland won 3-0 in Glasgow on September 29. Across the supplied head-to-head summary, they have two wins, one draw and one defeat against Scotland, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

Scotland, however, have a reason to pursue victory from the outset. Winning alone will not guarantee second place, but anything less would end their chance of overtaking Slovenia. Their chance-creation figures suggest they can trouble opponents, even if their five goals so far show how costly missed opportunities have been. At the other end, their last 12 Nations League matches have all finished with under 3.5 total goals, a useful counterpoint to Switzerland’s frequent multi-goal home games.

The central question is whether Scotland can turn chances into goals while containing hosts who average 2.2 per match in this campaign. Switzerland’s secured promotion may influence Yakin’s selections, but the available results do not point to an easy trip for the visitors. With Scotland needing three points and over 1.5 goals landing in 19 of Switzerland’s last 20 home matches, a match with at least two goals is well supported by the supplied form.

Switzerland vs Scotland prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 71% probability.