The second qualifying round of the 2026–27 UEFA Champions League brings an intriguing clash between FC Thun and GNK Dinamo Zagreb. The first leg will be played at the Stockhorn Arena, marking Thun’s return to European competition after several years away. The Swiss champions will be eager to make a strong impression in front of their supporters, while the Croatian side arrive with the experience and confidence of a team accustomed to performing on the continental stage. With both sides showing attacking tendencies in recent matches, this encounter promises to be an entertaining one.

Thun’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Thun enter this fixture following a 1–2 defeat against Waldhof Mannheim in their final friendly before the competitive season. That result extended a difficult run of form, with the team recording no wins in their last five matches (two draws and three defeats). During that period, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored per game but have conceded 2.8 goals on average, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities that could be costly against a prolific opponent like Dinamo Zagreb.

Despite their recent struggles, Thun’s achievement of winning the Swiss Super League last season remains historic, as it was the club’s first national title in 128 years. However, their defensive record is a concern: at least one goal has been conceded in each of their last 12 matches. Moreover, they have shown a tendency toward decisive outcomes, with no draws in 31 of their last 33 games. This pattern suggests that their matches are rarely balanced and often open, which could lead to another high-scoring affair in this European tie.

• Last 5 matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats


• Average goals scored: 1.2


• Average goals conceded: 2.8


• At least 1 goal conceded in 12 consecutive matches


• No draws in 31 of the last 33 games

Playing at home may offer some comfort, but Thun will need to tighten their defense and rediscover the attacking sharpness that carried them to domestic success. Their supporters will hope that the energy of a European night can inspire a turnaround in form.

Dinamo Zagreb’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Dinamo Zagreb arrive in Switzerland in excellent shape. The Croatian champions drew 0–0 against LNZ Cherkasy in their last friendly, but that result followed a run of three consecutive victories in which they scored a combined total of 16 goals. Their recent record is impressive: unbeaten in their last 18 matches, with nine straight away wins. This consistency underlines their status as favorites heading into the tie.

Dinamo’s attacking power has been remarkable, with over 1.5 goals scored in 19 of their last 20 matches and at least two goals scored in 17 of their last 18. Defensively, they have also been solid, conceding an average of just 0.4 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Their ability to dominate both ends of the pitch makes them a formidable opponent for any side, especially one still finding rhythm like Thun.

• Last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats


• Average goals scored: 3.2


• Average goals conceded: 0.4


• Unbeaten in 18 consecutive matches


• 9 consecutive away victories


• Over 1.5 goals in 19 of the last 20 matches


• At least 2 goals scored in 17 of the last 18 matches


• Under 7.5 corners in each of the last 4 matches

Dinamo’s experience in European competitions could also play a decisive role. Having participated in continental tournaments regularly, they are familiar with the demands of two-legged ties. Their recent form suggests they will approach this fixture with confidence, aiming to take a commanding lead before the return leg in Croatia.

Thun vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction and Tactical Overview

This matchup presents a contrast between a newly crowned domestic champion and a seasoned European campaigner. Thun will rely on their home advantage and the enthusiasm of their supporters to offset their recent defensive issues. Their attacking intent, however, could leave spaces for Dinamo Zagreb to exploit, especially given the visitors’ efficiency in front of goal.

Dinamo’s recent statistics point toward a high-scoring pattern, and Thun’s defensive fragility further supports that expectation. The Croatian side’s ability to score multiple goals consistently, combined with Thun’s tendency to concede, makes an open and entertaining game likely. Both teams have shown that they can find the net, which aligns with the probability of a goal-filled encounter.

According to the available data, the win probabilities stand at 30% for Thun, 20% for a draw, and 49% for Dinamo Zagreb. The Both Teams To Score – Yes market is rated at 62%, while the Over 2.5 goals option carries a 67% probability. These figures reinforce the expectation of an attacking contest with several scoring opportunities on both sides.

Ultimately, Dinamo Zagreb’s superior form and experience make them the more likely winners, but Thun’s determination and home support could ensure that the tie remains competitive. Fans can expect an exciting first leg, with goals likely to flow freely at the Stockhorn Arena.

FC Thun vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb prediction by BetMines:
Over 2.5 goals with 67% probability.