The battle for survival in Liga Portugal intensifies this Sunday at 15:30, when Tondela host Santa Clara at the Estádio João Cardoso. Both teams are level on 18 points after 23 rounds, and the stakes could not be higher: whoever wins will temporarily climb out of the relegation zone, overtaking Rio Ave, who play later in the day. The first meeting between these sides ended 2-1 in favor of Tondela, meaning Santa Clara will be eager to return the favor and keep their head-to-head record alive in this crucial phase of the season.

Tondela’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Tondela approach this fixture with renewed confidence after a much-needed 0-2 victory away to Estrela Amadora on February 20. That result ended a six-match winless streak and extended their current unbeaten run to four games. The team’s recent performances have shown signs of improvement, particularly at home, where they managed to hold Benfica to a draw earlier this month. Despite their progress, Tondela remain in 17th place, with a record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 13 defeats in the league, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match.

Defensively, the hosts have been more disciplined in recent weeks, but suspensions could complicate matters. Both Cícero and Yaya Sithole are unavailable after picking up their fifth yellow cards, forcing coach Cristiano Bacci to reshuffle his midfield. Juan Rodriguez could return to the starting lineup, while João Silva, who impressed in his first start last weekend, is expected to retain his place in defense. The home side’s main challenge remains consistency in front of goal, as they have scored just once per game on average in their last five outings.

• Under 1.5 goals have been scored in 18 of Tondela’s last 20 home matches.


• Under 0.5 goals at half time in 3 of their last 10 home games.


• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat (avg goals scored 1.0, conceded 1.2).

Santa Clara’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Santa Clara are still searching for their first win under new management, but there are signs of progress. Their 1-1 draw away to Alverca on February 21 ended a run of four consecutive defeats and provided a small morale boost. The Azorean side currently sit 16th in the table, just above Tondela on goal difference, with an identical record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 13 losses. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game this season, showing slightly better defensive numbers than their hosts.

Santa Clara’s main issue has been turning solid performances into victories. The team has struggled to find the net regularly, but their defensive organization has kept most of their matches tight. In fact, under 3.5 goals have been scored in 29 of their last 31 league games, and in 37 of their last 40 across all competitions. For this match, they will be without Frederico Venâncio due to suspension, forcing changes in the back line. Young defender Henrique Silva, Pedro Pacheco, and new signing Marcos Vítor are all in contention to partner Sidney Lima at the heart of defense. Meanwhile, winter signing Fernando could earn his first start after an encouraging cameo last weekend.

• Last 5 matches: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats (avg goals scored 0.8, conceded 1.8).


• Under 3.5 goals in 37 of their last 40 matches.


• Last head-to-head: Tondela 2-1 Santa Clara (September 27, 2025).

Tondela vs Santa Clara Analysis and Prediction

This clash has all the ingredients of a tense relegation battle. Both teams are level on points, both have struggled to score, and both are desperate to avoid defeat. Tondela’s home advantage and recent unbeaten streak give them a slight psychological edge, but Santa Clara’s defensive discipline and individual talent in key positions could make the difference. Historically, their encounters have been balanced, with two wins each and one draw in their last five meetings, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per side.

Given the statistical trends, a low-scoring match seems likely. Tondela’s home fixtures often feature few first-half goals, while Santa Clara’s games rarely exceed three total goals. The visitors may approach this match cautiously, aiming to secure at least a point before returning home for another crucial fixture. However, with both sides aware of the stakes, moments of individual brilliance could decide the outcome.

BetMines Prediction: Based on the latest data, the most probable outcome is an away win (2) for Santa Clara, with a 41% probability. The draw (X) follows at 30%, while a Tondela win (1) stands at 29%. Considering the goal trends, the Under 2.5 goals option (65% probability) also appears highly plausible for bettors seeking a safer alternative.