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Prediction published on May 23, 2025 11:03 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on May 25, 2025 11:36 AM
At the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Claudio Ranieri’s AS Roma will fight for crucial points against Torino FC, managed by Paolo Vanoli, in their bid to secure a place in next season’s UEFA Champions League. The Giallorossi come into this clash on the back of an impressive 3-1 victory over AC Milan, and must win again to keep their hopes alive of overtaking Juventus, who are currently fourth, just one point ahead. Should Juventus fail to beat Venezia, Roma could crown their season with a return to Europe’s top club competition – a goal they haven’t reached since the 2017/18 season. Ranieri’s side, which bid farewell to the fans at the Stadio Olimpico last weekend, has mounted a remarkable comeback in the table: of their current 66 points, 44 were collected in 2025 – matching Bayern Munich’s record and trailing only FC Barcelona among Europe’s top clubs. Regardless of the outcome in Venice, a win is vital for Roma to secure at least fifth place and a guaranteed UEFA Europa League spot, while avoiding being overtaken by Lazio, who are also still in the race and facing a desperate Lecce side battling relegation. Torino, on the other hand, have endured yet another underwhelming season, mostly spent in mid-table, and failed to secure even a top-10 finish, overtaken in recent weeks by newly-promoted Como. Still, Vanoli – in his debut Serie A campaign – has had a decent run and will aim to close the season with a prideful performance in front of home fans. However, tensions remain high in Turin, with the fanbase openly critical of the club’s management. A victory against a top team like Roma could offer some consolation at the end of a joyless season.
Paolo Vanoli’s side comes into this match on the back of two consecutive defeats, the latest being a 1-0 loss away to Lecce last weekend. Overall, Torino are going through a rough patch, with just one win, three losses, and a draw in their last five matches – averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Offensively, they have struggled, failing to score in their last two outings, while the defense has been breached in each of their last four games.
Torino are set to finish the season in the lower half of the table, currently sitting on 44 points (10 wins, 14 draws, 13 losses) – five behind Como, who have already locked down 10th place. At home, they lost their most recent game 0-2 to Inter Milan, snapping a nine-match unbeaten streak that included four wins and five draws. That match against Inter remains their only home defeat of 2025.
Last weekend’s 3-1 win over AC Milan – with goals from veterans Mancini, Paredes, and Cristante – brought back smiles to the Roma camp after a 2-1 defeat to Atalanta the week before had dented their Champions League hopes. The Giallorossi managed to score three goals in a match for the first time in nearly three months.
Heading into the final round, Roma sit fifth in the table with 66 points (19 wins, 9 draws, 9 losses), still in contention for a top-four finish, just a point behind Juventus. They boast one of Serie A’s best defenses, having conceded only 35 goals in 37 matches, though they are the least prolific among the top nine teams with just 54 goals scored. Away from home, Roma have been solid, losing only once in their last 10 road games, with six wins and three draws.
Recent encounters between these two sides have been tight affairs – often decided by a single goal, as was the case in the reverse fixture when Paulo Dybala scored the winner for Roma. Four of the last five head-to-heads have ended with under three total goals, a trend mirrored in Torino’s last nine league matches and in seven of Roma’s last nine.
Defensively, Torino have remained compact under Vanoli’s guidance, particularly at home, thanks in part to standout performances from goalkeeper Milinković-Savić. Offensively, however, they've struggled all season, especially after Duván Zapata’s early-season injury left the team without a consistent goal scorer.
Roma, on the other hand, have often secured narrow victories – frequently 1-0 – capitalizing on moments from players like Dovbyk, Soulé, and Shomurodov before managing the game defensively. Goalkeeper Svilar has been key, keeping 15 clean sheets this season, while defenders Mancini and Ndicka have been pillars at the back.
Given both teams’ scoring difficulties and their defensive solidity, the Torino vs Roma prediction for Matchday 38 of Serie A – as projected by the BetMines algorithm – suggests a low-scoring affair with under 3 total goals.
TORINO (4-2-3-1): Milinković-Savić; Dembélé, Maripán, Masina, Biraghi; Ricci, Casadei; Lazaro, Vlašić, Elmas; Adams. Coach: Paolo Vanoli
ROMA (3-5-2): Svilar; Çelik, Mancini, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Koné, Paredes, Cristante, Angeliño; Soulé, Shomurodov. Coach: Claudio Ranieri
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Torino
Roma
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
3
7
4
6
3.5
7
3
6
4
4.5
8
2
7
3