Toulouse welcome Le Havre to the Stadium de Toulouse on September 19, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. This Ligue 1 meeting brings together two teams still searching for their first league victory of the season. Toulouse are 17th after collecting two points from four matches, while Le Havre sit 16th with the same record of no wins, two draws and two defeats. The hosts have produced encouraging passages of play without turning them into positive results, whereas the visitors have found goals particularly difficult to obtain. With both clubs eager to move away from the bottom end of the standings, efficiency in the penalty areas could decide a closely contested fixture.

Toulouse Recent Form and Key Statistics

Toulouse enter the fifth Ligue 1 matchday with two draws and two defeats. Their five most recent games have produced no victories, two draws and three losses, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Those numbers underline the main challenge facing Jens Berthel Askou's team: promising performances must now be converted into points.

Their campaign began with a 2-0 defeat against Olympique Lyonnais, despite Toulouse recording 17 shots. They then drew 2-2 away to Stade Brestois after being caught in the closing stages. A 1-0 loss against LOSC followed, although Toulouse again enjoyed opportunities and periods of control. Their latest result was a 2-2 draw with Lorient on September 12. On that occasion, Toulouse demonstrated resilience by recovering from a two-goal deficit to secure a point.

The home side have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded across their four Ligue 1 fixtures. Another notable trend is that each of their last 13 matches has featured at least one second-half goal. The same pattern has occurred in their previous 12 Ligue 1 games, suggesting that the contest may remain open to decisive developments after the interval.

Toulouse will be without Aron Dønnum, while Rasmus Nicolaisen and Abu Francis are uncertain. Guillaume Restes is expected to return after missing the previous match. With Nicolaisen's availability unclear, greater responsibility could fall on Mark McKenzie and Christ Tape in defence. In midfield, Cristian Cásseres Jr. has made a strong start to the season, while Thomas Jorgensen arrives after scoring against Lorient. Jacen Russell-Rowe has also opened his goalscoring account and will hope to add to it.

Le Havre Recent Form and Key Statistics

Le Havre have exactly the same Ligue 1 record as their hosts: no wins, two draws and two defeats. They opened their league campaign with a 1-0 loss to AS Monaco before earning a 1-1 away draw against Olympique Lyonnais. A 2-1 defeat against Stade Brestois came next, followed by a goalless home draw with Angers SCO on September 12.

Across their last five matches, Le Havre have recorded one victory, two draws and two defeats. They have averaged only 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded during that sequence. Their Ligue 1 figures are even more restrained, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Having scored only twice in their first four league fixtures, the visitors need to find more precision in the final third.

Low-scoring games have been a persistent feature of Le Havre's results. A total of 29 of their last 31 matches have finished with under 3.5 goals. Within Ligue 1, that outcome has occurred in 28 of their previous 30 fixtures. Their 0-0 draw against Angers offered another example of a match in which chances and goals remained limited.

The visitors have several availability concerns. Lionel Mpasi, Timothée Pembélé, Stephan Zagadou and Felix Mambimbi are unavailable, while Paul Argney, Junior Mwanga and Rassoul Ndiaye are uncertain. Following Mpasi's serious injury, Le Havre recruited Arnaud Bodart, who could make his debut in this fixture. Ayumu Seko remains an important defensive presence, while Simon Ebonog and Amir Richardson are players to monitor in midfield. In attack, Rayan Fofana has scored once after appearing from the bench in the last two matches, and Ally Samatta found the net against Lyon.

Toulouse vs Le Havre Match Analysis

There is little separating these teams in terms of points, but their recent numbers present contrasting issues. Toulouse have created opportunities and shown character, particularly when coming back from two goals down against Lorient, yet their average of 1.8 goals conceded demonstrates the need for greater defensive control. Le Havre have conceded less frequently but carry a limited attacking return into this away assignment.

The win probabilities give Toulouse a 43% chance of victory, compared with 28% for the draw and 29% for Le Havre. The hosts therefore hold a narrow statistical advantage, although neither side's opening league record provides room for certainty. Their head-to-head summary is also balanced, with two Toulouse wins, one draw and two defeats. Toulouse have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in those meetings, while the latest encounter ended 2-1 on February 15, 2026.

The goals data points toward a measured match rather than an expansive contest. The probability assessment places under 2.5 goals at 55%, while over 2.5 stands at 45%. Both Teams To Score is split evenly between Yes and No at 50%. Le Havre's long run of matches staying below 3.5 goals, combined with their season average of only 0.5 goals scored, strengthens the expectation of a fixture decided by a small number of clear chances. Toulouse may see more attacking possibilities, but improved finishing and defensive concentration will be essential if they are to claim their first league victory.

Toulouse vs Le Havre prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 55% probability.