Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction: Match Preview and Analysis | Ligue 1

At the Stadium, Toulouse and Monaco face off in the opening match of Ligue 1's 25th round. This game is crucial for both teams, as they enter March needing valuable points to stay on track with their seasonal objectives. The home side, currently eighth in the standings, is six points behind sixth-placed Olympique Lyon, who are on the rise under Paulo Fonseca. A victory against Monaco would keep Toulouse’s hopes alive for a European qualification spot. However, to secure points against Monaco, Toulouse must break a negative trend—they have yet to win a home game in 2025. That said, Monaco is not the easiest opponent to end this drought against, as the visitors are in the race for a Champions League spot and cannot afford to drop points at this stage of the season. With Monaco out of the Coupe de France and the Champions League, their sole focus is on the domestic league, and a win in Toulouse would allow them to catch up with third-placed Nice, who face a tough match against Olympique Lyon.

Toulouse's Shape and Key Statistics

Toulouse enters this game after winning their last two Ligue 1 matches, both away from home, scoring four goals in each: 1-4 against Le Havre and 0-4 against Angers. Before these back-to-back wins, Novell’s side had gone six games without a victory across all competitions (three losses and three draws).

As mentioned earlier, home form is not Toulouse’s strong suit—their last home win in Ligue 1 dates back to December 13th, when they defeated Saint-Étienne 2-1. Despite sitting eighth in the table, Les Violets boast the second-best defense in the league, conceding only 26 goals in 24 matches.

Monaco's Shape and Key Statistics

On one side, we have the second-best defense in Ligue 1; on the other, a Monaco team that has scored more goals than anyone except Nice, Olympique Marseille, and Paris Saint-Germain. The Monegasques have found the net 48 times, averaging 2 goals per game.

What Monaco has lacked this season is consistency, especially in their away performances. Adolf Hütter’s team has lost five of their last eight away matches across all competitions. Their last Ligue 1 away win dates back to November 9th, when they defeated Strasbourg 1-3.

Toulouse vs Monaco Prediction and Tactical Overview

At the Stadium in Toulouse, two highly motivated teams will clash: the hosts looking for their first home win of 2025, and the visitors aiming to secure a top-four finish.

Given Toulouse’s struggles at home and Monaco’s difficulties on the road, this match is expected to be a tight contest, especially as it features one of the league’s best attacks against one of the strongest defenses.

For this reason, the BetMines algorithm predicts that both teams will score at least one goal.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Toulouse vs Monaco match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 58%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Toulouse vs Monaco match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 42%

Toulouse vs Monaco Probable Lineups

Toulouse (3-4-2-1): Haug; Sidibé, Cresswell, McKenzie; Donnum, Casseres, Sierro, Suazo; Aboukhal, Babicka; Magri. Coach: Novell.

Monaco (4-2-3-1): Majecki; Vanderson, Kehrer, Mawissa, Caio Henrique; Al Musrati, Zakaria; Akliouche, Embolo, Minamino; Biereth. Coach: Hütter.