On Saturday, November 15, at Bursa Atatürk Stadium, Turkey will host Bulgaria in a decisive match for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The home team, led by Italian coach Vincenzo Montella, aims for a victory that would secure at least a playoff spot, consolidating their second place so far behind Spain, the group favorites. Finishing second in a group that also features an emerging national team like Georgia remains an important objective for Calhanoglu and his teammates. Bulgaria, on the other hand, currently occupies the last place in the group with zero points and has no chance of qualifying. For Dimitrov’s men, the goal will be to try to earn their first points of the group, making this disappointing qualifying campaign slightly less bitter.

Turkey's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Turkey is enjoying a good run of form, winning five of their last six matches across all competitions. Their most recent victory came on October 14: a 4-1 win against Georgia, with a double from Demiral and goals from Yildiz and Akgun.

In the first four matchdays of Group E, the Turks have collected 9 points from 3 wins and 1 defeat, with an average of 3.25 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded per game. This is a team very effective in attack, with Yildiz scoring 3 goals in the last two games, but also somewhat vulnerable defensively, having conceded at least one goal in every match so far.

At home, Calhanoglu and his teammates suffered a heavy 6-0 defeat against Spain last September but bounced back in their last home game, defeating Georgia 4-1. More generally, they have lost only once in their last six home matches across all competitions (4 wins, 1 draw).

Bulgaria's Recent Form and Key Statistics

Bulgaria is going through an absolutely forgettable period, coming off six consecutive defeats in World Cup Qualifiers and the UEFA Nations League. The latest loss was on October 14, when Dimitrov’s men were crushed 4-0 by the European Champions Spain.

With such a disappointing recent record, it is no surprise that the Bulgarians are at the bottom of Group E with zero points, having scored only one goal while conceding 16 (an exact average of 4 per game). This situation forces Bulgaria to postpone their return to a World Cup once again.

Bulgaria has suffered two heavy defeats on the road against Georgia (3-0) and Spain (4-0), failing to score in either match and conceding an average of 3.5 goals per game. Coming off three consecutive away defeats, Bulgaria has not won on the road since November 15, 2024: a 1-0 victory against Luxembourg with a goal from Kraev.

Turkey vs Bulgaria Prediction by BetMines

BetMines predicts a one-sided match, with Turkey doing everything to defeat Bulgaria and secure second place in Group E. The home win is estimated at 73% probability, while an away victory seems almost impossible at just 9%.

BetMines believes Montella’s men could dominate convincingly, scoring at least three goals without conceding any. The visitors have struggled to find the net, scoring only once in their last four matches.

Although Turkey’s defense is not always reliable, it seems very likely that Cakir could finally achieve his first clean sheet in this competition, as happened in two of the last three meetings against Bulgaria (including friendlies).

For these reasons, BetMines tips the outcomes Over 2.5 goals and “at least one team does not score,” with probabilities of 54% and 63%, respectively.

Probable Lineups Turkey vs Bulgaria

TURKEY (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Akaydin; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Yilmaz, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu. Coach: Montella

BULGARIA (4-3-3): Mitov; Popov, Chernev, Bozhinov, Georgiev; Shopov, Krastev, Gruev; Petkov, Despodov, Minchev. Coach: Dimitrov