At RAMS Park in Istanbul, Turkey hosts Hungary in the first leg of the UEFA Nations League playoff to determine which team will remain or be promoted to League A, and which, on the contrary, will be relegated or remain in League B. The home team enters this do-or-die match after finishing second in Group 4 of League B, just one point behind Wales, who secured direct promotion to League A. To earn a spot in the top-tier group, Montella's team must prevail in this Italian derby of sorts against his compatriot Marco Rossi. On the other hand, the Hungarians will fight for their place in League A, relying on the home advantage in the return leg next week after finishing third in Group 3 behind Germany and the Netherlands. Turkey, the surprise team of the last European Championship, is the favorite due to home advantage and a technically superior squad. Hungary, however, will aim to contain their opponents and keep their hopes alive for the second leg.

Turkey's Shape and Key Statistics

Turkey finished third in Group 3 of League B, collecting 11 points, but it wasn’t enough for direct promotion. Montella’s team recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat, scoring 9 goals and conceding 6.

A decisive setback was the 3-1 defeat against Montenegro in the final match, a team that had been sitting at zero points before that game. However, at home, Turkey has been strong, remaining unbeaten in their three Nations League home matches, securing 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 4 goals and conceding only 1.

Hungary's Shape and Key Statistics

Hungary secured this playoff spot after collecting 6 points in Group 3 of League A, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Despite finishing third, Marco Rossi's side delivered solid performances, holding both Germany and the Netherlands to 1-1 draws.

In three away games, Hungary managed only one victory, a 2-0 win against Bosnia-Herzegovina, thanks to a brace from Liverpool midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai. However, they suffered heavy defeats against the Netherlands (4-0) and Germany (5-0).

Turkey vs Hungary Prediction and Tactical Overview

The last time these two teams met in Turkey was on September 3, 2020, when Hungary won 1-0 in a Nations League fixture, courtesy of a goal from Dominik Szoboszlai, who has 15 goals in 51 appearances for the national team.

Their most recent clash was in a friendly match on March 22, 2024, in Hungary, where Marco Rossi’s team secured another 1-0 victory, once again thanks to a Szoboszlai penalty.

Despite these past results favoring Hungary, Turkey, backed by their passionate home crowd, will look to capitalize on their attacking talent to claim victory in the first leg and take an advantage into the return leg next week.

Key players for Turkey include Calhanoglu, who has scored 2 goals in his last 3 games for Inter, Benfica striker Kerem Akturkoglu, and the young talents Yildiz and Guler, who, despite struggling for game time at Juventus and Real Madrid, are key figures for Montella’s squad.

Given Turkey’s superior attacking potential and home advantage, the BetMines algorithm prediction strongly favors a home win. 

• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Turkey vs Hungary predicts the 1 sign at 62%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Turkey vs Hungary predicts the X sign at 22%
• BetMines algorithm prediction for the match Turkey vs Hungary predicts the 2 sign at 17%

Turkey vs Hungary Predicted Lineups

Turkey (4-2-3-1): Gunok; Ayhan, Demiral, Topcu, Eren Elmali; Kokcu, Yokuslu; Akgun, Guler, Yildiz; Kerem Akturkoglu. Coach: Montella

Hungary (3-4-2-1): Dibusz; Fiola, Orban, Dardai; Nego, Nikitscher, Schafer, Nagy; Szoboszlai, Sallai; Varga. Coach: Rossi