UCV Moquegua host Alianza Lima on October 25 in Peru’s Primera Division, with kickoff scheduled for 18:15 local time. This Clausura match brings together a home side trying to build on a long-awaited victory and visitors who have won three games in a row. Moquegua ended a six-match losing streak by beating FC Cajamarca 1-0 away from home, but they remain 16th in the league ranking and have gone six home matches without a win. Alianza Lima, ranked seventh, arrive with a stronger season record and an attack that has scored in 19 of their last 20 Primera Division matches.

UCV Moquegua’s Recent Form and Key Stats

UCV Moquegua earned a much-needed result on October 18, winning 1-0 at FC Cajamarca. It was their only victory in their last five matches, a stretch that also brought four defeats and no draws. Over those five games, they averaged just 0.4 goals scored and conceded 2.0 per match. The win halted their losing run, but their recent scoring figures show why putting together another positive result may be difficult.

Their Primera Division record stands at seven wins, seven draws and 15 losses. Across the season, Moquegua have averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match; the source article also records 25 goals scored in 29 league rounds. Under José Soto, turning the latest result into sustained improvement is the immediate challenge. Home advantage has offered little relief recently, with the side failing to win any of its last six matches on its own ground.

Moquegua’s matches have occasionally finished without a goal: three of their last 14 Primera Division fixtures ended 0-0, including two of their last 10 home games. Those results are only part of a mixed picture, however, given that they have conceded an average of two goals across their most recent five outings. Their narrow win at Cajamarca provides a starting point for this fixture, but their home run and modest scoring average remain concerns against an in-form opponent.

Alianza Lima’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Alianza Lima travel to Moquegua after three consecutive victories. Their latest was a 3-1 win over Atlético Grau on October 18, extending a run that has lifted them to three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. During that period, they averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Those recent figures give the visitors a clear contrast with Moquegua’s one win and 0.4 goals per match over the same five-game span.

The visitors’ wider Primera Division record is 18 wins, eight draws and three losses, with season averages of 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The source article credits Pablo Guede’s side with conceding only 20 goals over the year. Alianza have also scored at least once in 19 of their last 20 league matches, a notably consistent return ahead of a meeting with a team that has struggled to score regularly.

There are further indicators of Alianza Lima’s ability to start matches competitively. At least one first-half goal has been scored in each of their last 15 Primera Division fixtures, while they have avoided trailing at half-time in 35 of their last 39 matches. In addition, only one of their previous 10 games finished with more than 3.5 total goals. These figures do not determine how this match will unfold, but they underline the combination of regular scoring and a strong defensive season record behind their current winning streak.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima Match Analysis

The contrast in season results makes Alianza Lima the stronger side on the available evidence. They have won 18 of their 29 league matches, compared with seven wins for Moquegua, and the supplied win probabilities put the visitors at 47%, the draw at 29% and the hosts at 24%. Moquegua’s victory at FC Cajamarca deserves attention because it ended six straight defeats, yet one away win does not erase their six-match wait for a home victory.

The most recent head-to-head meeting also went Alianza Lima’s way: they beat Moquegua 2-1 on May 3. That single result is the full head-to-head record supplied for this preview, so it should be weighed alongside the more extensive current-season form rather than treated as a trend. Alianza’s three successive wins, their 0.7 goals conceded per league match and their scoring record over the last 20 fixtures offer the clearest reasons for their advantage. Moquegua’s task is to follow up their clean-sheet win at Cajamarca while finding more attacking output than they have managed in their last five games.

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima prediction from BetMines: Alianza Lima win (2) with 47% probability.