Udinese host AC Milan at the Dacia Arena on October 25 for the eighth round of Serie A. The teams arrive with contrasting league records: Udinese have one win, one draw and five defeats, while Milan remain unbeaten with four wins and three draws. The hosts are looking to recover from a 3-0 loss to Lecce on October 18. Milan beat Atalanta 3-2 in their latest league outing, but then suffered a 3-0 defeat against AFC Bournemouth on October 22. Recent meetings generally favor the visitors, although Udinese won the previous encounter in April. That result, together with Milan’s recent run of away draws in Serie A, gives this match more intrigue than the league records alone might suggest.

Udinese's Recent Form and Key Stats

Udinese have taken one draw and suffered four defeats across their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 2.4 per game. Their seven-match Serie A record is only slightly better in attacking terms, at 1.3 goals per match, while they have conceded 2.3 on average. The defeat to Lecce underlined the difficulty facing Kosta Runjaic’s side as they try to halt a poor run of results.

Creating enough clear chances has been a particular concern. Udinese have registered 20 shots on target in this Serie A season, the lowest total in the league, despite Ekkelenkamp attempting 20 shots himself. They have scored just two goals after half-time and conceded 10, leaving them with a second-half goal difference of minus eight. They have also allowed opponents 126 shots overall. With only one goal scored across their last three games, they need a stronger attacking return against an unbeaten Milan side.

There is, however, a consistent pattern in Udinese’s home results: under 3.5 total goals have been scored in each of their last 15 home matches, including their last 13 at home in Serie A. That statistic refers to goals by both teams combined, not only Udinese’s scoring. Runjaic will be without Gueye, Bayo and Alaba, while Davis is available to provide an attacking option.

AC Milan's Recent Form and Key Stats

AC Milan have made the stronger start in Serie A, recording four wins and three draws while averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league game. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have won three, drawn one and lost one, with averages of 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their 3-2 victory over Atalanta showed their ability to win a close league contest, even if the subsequent defeat to Bournemouth leaves them seeking an immediate response.

Rabiot has contributed three goals and two assists in his last four league appearances, giving Milan a recent source of attacking production. Their matches have also delivered goals regularly: at least two total goals have been scored in each of their last 14 fixtures and in each of their last 11 Serie A games. At least one second-half goal has been scored in those same 11 consecutive league matches. These are match-total trends rather than claims that Milan themselves scored every goal.

The visitors’ away record calls for some caution despite those attacking numbers. Milan have drawn their last three Serie A away games, even though they have won on each of their last three league visits to Udinese. Ruben Amorim has not lost in his first seven Serie A matches in charge of Milan. The squad also has availability concerns: Saelemaekers, Terracciano and Gabbia are unavailable, while Chukwueze faces a potentially lengthy absence.

Udinese vs AC Milan Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head record gives Milan an edge, with four wins in the last five meetings, though Udinese took the remaining victory in the most recent encounter on April 11. None of the last eight Serie A meetings between the clubs has ended in a draw. Milan have also won their last three league trips to Udinese by a combined score of 10-2. Those results support the visitors’ case, but Udinese’s latest head-to-head win is a reminder that the fixture has not been one-sided every time.

The main question is whether Udinese can improve their chance creation enough to trouble a Milan side that has conceded an average of one goal per league game. Milan’s stronger season record, higher recent scoring average and positive record at Udinese all point in their favor. At the same time, three consecutive away draws in Serie A make it difficult to overlook the possibility of another tight contest, particularly given Udinese’s long sequence of home games with fewer than four total goals. Milan appear better placed to respond after their midweek defeat, but they must turn that advantage into a result on the pitch.

Udinese vs AC Milan prediction from BetMines: AC Milan win (2) with 49% probability.