At the Blueenergy Stadium in Udine, on Saturday, September 20, the early fixture of Serie A Matchday 4 will feature Udinese and AC Milan, two of the most in-form teams in the league. After the first three rounds, the Bianconeri and the Rossoneri sit in the upper part of the table with 7 and 6 points respectively. The hosts remain unbeaten and are chasing what would be their third straight victory after wins against Inter and Pisa. Another positive result would allow Runjaic’s men to extend their lead over Milan and edge closer to the top spots, moving far beyond the usual relegation battle narrative. It’s worth recalling, however, that last season Udinese also started very strongly before dramatically slowing down, picking up wins only in the latter part of the campaign. With that in mind, German coach Runjaic will want to keep his players’ focus high to avoid a similar drop-off this year. Milan, on the other hand, arrive with confidence after back-to-back wins over Lecce and Bologna, determined to continue their momentum in pursuit of a leading role following last season’s disappointing 8th-place finish. A victory in Udine would allow the Rossoneri to leapfrog Udinese in the standings and start applying pressure on Juventus and Napoli, both facing tricky matches against Verona and Pisa. Considering the stakes and the current form of both sides, all the ingredients are there for an intense and entertaining clash.

Udinese's recent form and key stats

Udinese are undoubtedly one of the surprises of this Serie A start: two victories, including a prestigious away win at Inter, and a draw in the opening three games. Their latest success came last Sunday with a 0-1 victory on newly-promoted Pisa’s pitch, thanks to the first goal of the season from Spanish forward Iker Bravo.

Currently sitting fourth with 7 points, the Friuli side have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match. Kosta Runjaic’s team are proving efficient in attack despite the departures of Lucca and Thauvin, while remaining well-organized defensively, with Solet and Kristensen already attracting interest from top Italian clubs thanks to their performances.

One aspect the German manager must improve is home form: Udinese have failed to win any of their last six Serie A games at the Blueenergy Stadium, recording two draws and four losses. Their last home success dates back to March 1, a 1-0 victory over Parma with a Thauvin penalty, before the Frenchman’s summer move to Lens.

AC Milan's recent form and key stats

After losing their opener against Cremonese, AC Milan bounced back with two consecutive victories over Lecce and Bologna. The latest came with a narrow 1-0 win against Vincenzo Italiano’s Rossoblù, sealed by Luka Modrić’s first Serie A goal, the former Real Madrid star and 2018 Ballon d’Or winner.

Compared to the debut against Cremonese, where they conceded twice, the Rossoneri now look more solid defensively, keeping two clean sheets in a row. Offensively, despite Leao’s injury absence, they average 1.33 goals per match, with goals coming from different scorers.

Massimiliano Allegri’s Milan also boast a strong away record, having won five of their last six away fixtures. Among them stands out last April’s 4-0 triumph precisely at Udinese, with goals from Leao, Pavlovic, Theo Hernandez, and Reijnders.

Udinese vs AC Milan prediction and tactical overview

The prediction for Udinese vs AC Milan points to a balanced game, but Allegri’s side seem to have that extra edge to claim all three points. The Rossoneri will be motivated to secure their third consecutive Serie A win, leveraging their higher squad quality and hunger to bounce back after a forgettable season.

Another factor in Milan’s favor is head-to-head history: they’ve won four of the last six encounters with Udinese. Moreover, in both matches last season, the Rossoneri won without conceding, underlining their technical superiority.

From a tactical standpoint, the hosts will rely heavily on their physical midfield to win back possession and launch Davis and Bravo into space, supported by Atta’s late runs from midfield, already decisive in the win against Inter.

The visitors, meanwhile, will focus on controlling the midfield and breaking forward quickly through the dribbling runs of Rabiot and Loftus-Cheek, supplied by Luka Modrić’s vision and passing range. Up front, there is still uncertainty over whether Nkunku or Gimenez will start, while goalkeeper Terracciano will step in for the injured Maignan.

• Udinese vs AC Milan prediction by BetMines: Udinese win (1) – 28% probability
  
  
• Udinese vs AC Milan prediction by BetMines: Draw (X) – 26% probability
  
  
• Udinese vs AC Milan prediction by BetMines: AC Milan win (2) – 47% probability

Probable lineups Udinese vs AC Milan

UDINESE (3-5-2): Sava; Bertola, Kristensen, Solet; Ehizibue, Piotrowski, Karlstrom, Atta, Zemura; Davis, Bravo. Coach: Kosta Runjaic

AC MILAN (3-5-2): Terracciano; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Loftus, Modric, Rabiot, Estupinan; Gimenez, Pulisic. Coach: Massimiliano Allegri