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Prediction published on Aug 13, 2026 5:02 PM by Dario in Italy - Coppa Italia | Modified on Aug 13, 2026 5:02 PM
Udinese and Calcio Padova meet on Saturday at 20:30 in the first round of the Coppa Italia, following the preliminary ties played the previous week. The contest takes place at the Bluenergy Stadium and offers both clubs an immediate opportunity to progress in a knockout competition. Udinese are seeking another positive cup run after reaching the round of 16 last season, while Padova arrive with ambitions of their own despite the league remaining their main priority. The winner will face either Venezia or Modena at the beginning of September. With recent results showing defensive vulnerability on both sides, this Udinese vs Calcio Padova preview points towards a potentially lively encounter.
Udinese enter the fixture as the first-ranked side in the supplied Coppa Italia ranking, but their latest overall form has been difficult. Their most recent recorded result was a 1-0 defeat against Trabzonspor on August 2, 2026. Across their last five matches, Udinese have registered no victories, two draws and three defeats. They have scored an average of 1.2 goals per game during that sequence while conceding 2.0, figures which underline the need for greater control at both ends of the pitch.
Their Coppa Italia record at home nevertheless provides several encouraging signs. Each of Udinese’s last ten home matches in this competition has produced over 1.5 total goals. The same threshold has also been reached in their last ten Coppa Italia fixtures regardless of venue, suggesting that their cup games have regularly delivered at least two goals overall. Udinese have also been ahead at half-time in each of their previous four home matches in the tournament. That sequence could make the opening period especially important as the hosts try to impose themselves early.
Udinese approach the tie with most of the squad available, although Ekkelenkamp and Zanoli are absent following recent injuries. The home side’s main objective is straightforward: avoid an early upset and begin another meaningful Coppa Italia campaign. Their recent five-match sequence leaves room for improvement, but the strong first-half trend in home cup games gives them a useful platform from which to respond.
Calcio Padova are listed second in the supplied Coppa Italia ranking and come into this match after a dramatic 3-3 draw with Monza on August 7, 2026. They also defeated Cittadella 2-0 in a recent friendly. Those performances offered attacking encouragement, particularly the six-goal contest against Monza, but they also demonstrated that maintaining defensive stability may be a significant challenge against stronger pressure.
Padova’s last five matches have produced two victories, one draw and two defeats. During that period, they have averaged an impressive 2.2 goals scored per game, although their average of 2.6 conceded is even higher. The numbers therefore present a clear contrast: Padova have carried a regular scoring threat, but their matches have also left considerable space for opponents to exploit. Their ability to remain competitive may depend on whether they can preserve their attacking output while reducing the chances conceded.
The first half has been a particular concern in Padova’s Coppa Italia appearances. They have been behind at the interval in each of their last three matches in the competition, including all three of their latest away cup fixtures. Looking beyond the Coppa Italia alone, Padova have trailed at half-time in six of their last ten away matches. That trend becomes especially relevant against an Udinese side that has won the first half in four consecutive home games in this tournament.
This is Padova’s second season in Serie B after securing comfortable survival during the previous campaign. Although the club is described as ambitious, its main attention may be directed towards the league. Even so, recent attacking displays indicate that the visitors should not be dismissed. If they can negotiate the opening stages more effectively than in their recent away matches, they have shown enough scoring potential to make the tie competitive.
The available statistics create an intriguing contrast ahead of this Coppa Italia fixture. Udinese have the stronger historical record in the matchup, recording two wins and one defeat across the supplied head-to-head summary. They averaged 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in those meetings. However, the latest recorded clash ended in a 3-2 result on March 25, 2024, highlighting the possibility of another open game when these sides meet.
Udinese’s immediate priority will be to improve on a five-match run containing three defeats and no wins. Home cup trends provide a more positive picture, particularly their four consecutive half-time advantages and the run of ten home Coppa Italia matches featuring over 1.5 total goals. A fast start would allow the hosts to place pressure on a Padova side that has repeatedly entered the interval behind in recent away fixtures.
For Padova, the challenge is to balance ambition with discipline. Their average of 2.2 goals across the last five matches demonstrates genuine attacking productivity, while the 3-3 draw against Monza offers further evidence that they can contribute to an entertaining contest. At the same time, conceding 2.6 goals per match across that five-game period makes defensive management central to their prospects of advancing.
The supplied probabilities reflect a competitive tie while giving Udinese the largest individual share: 43% for Udinese, 27% for the draw and 29% for Calcio Padova. Both Teams To Score – Yes and Over 2.5 goals are each listed at 51%, which aligns with the recent scoring and conceding averages. Nevertheless, the decisive themes are likely to be Udinese’s strong home first-half pattern and Padova’s recurring difficulty before the interval. Whichever team manages those early phases more effectively will earn the chance to meet Venezia or Modena in the next round.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Udinese
Calcio Padova
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
3
7
4
6
2.5
6
4
6
4
3.5
7
3
6
4
4.5
8
2
7
3