UEFA Nations League Preview: Belgium vs Italy – Match Analysis and Betting Tips

The UEFA Nations League clash between Belgium and Italy, set for November 14, 2024, at Stade Roi Baudouin in Brussels, promises to be an exciting contest. With Italy currently holding the top spot in the group and Belgium sitting in third, both teams have something to prove. Their attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities suggest an intense and goal-rich matchup.

Team News

With Manchester City playmaker Kevin De Bruyne unavailable, Belgium will rely on Napoli’s Romelu Lukaku to lead the charge. The powerful forward is the only player in the current Red Devils squad who started in their last home match against Italy. Besides De Bruyne, head coach Domenico Tedesco will also be without Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.

On Italy’s side, Inter midfielder Nicolo Barella makes his return after missing October’s call-up due to injury. Atalanta’s prolific striker Mateo Retegui will lead the attack, while Lorenzo Pellegrini is back in the lineup after serving a one-game suspension in their match against Israel.

Belgium’s Form and Key Stats

Belgium heads into this fixture following a 1-2 loss to France on October 14, 2024. Their UEFA Nations League record has been mixed, with one win, two losses, and one draw. Belgium scores an average of 1.5 goals per match but has a high average of 1.75 goals conceded per game, highlighting a defensive weakness.

Their home games, however, have been particularly active in front of the goal:

• Belgium has scored in each of their last nine home matches in the Nations League, showcasing a strong offensive ability on home soil.
• Defensively, they’ve conceded in each of their last seven home matches, making their backline a potential concern.
• In fact, both teams have scored in Belgium’s last seven home games, and all of these matches saw over 2.5 goals, indicating a trend toward high-scoring encounters.

These stats suggest that while Belgium is reliable offensively, their defense will need to tighten up to keep Italy’s attackers at bay.\

Italy’s Form and Key Stats

Italy enters this matchup on the heels of a commanding 4-1 victory over Israel. They remain unbeaten in the Nations League with three wins and one draw, scoring an impressive 2.75 goals per match and conceding 1.25 on average.

Italy’s consistent offensive performance is backed up by a few key trends:

• Italy has scored in their last nine Nations League matches, showcasing formidable attacking power.
• Both teams have found the net in each of Italy’s last six Nations League games, underscoring Italy’s tendency for open play.
• Over 2.5 goals were scored in Italy’s last six games, reflecting the team’s focus on attack.
• Notably, Italy has scored at least two goals in each of their last five Nations League matches.

These patterns suggest that Italy will look to press forward and score in Brussels, though their defense may also give Belgium chances to capitalize.

Belgium vs Italy Potential Starting Line-ups

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Maarten Vandevoordt; Timothy Castagne, Wout Faes, Zeno Debast, Arthur Theate; Orel Mangala, Youri Tielemans; Dodi Lukebakio, Leandro Trossard, Jeremy Doku; Lois Openda.

Italy (3-5-1-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori; Raoul Bellanova, Nicolo Barella, Samuele Ricci, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco; Lorenzo Pellegrini; Mateo Retegui.

Match Prediction and Tactical Overview

With these dynamics in mind, a high-scoring game appears probable, with a likely outcome of both teams scoring at least one goal.

Both teams bring offensive strength to the table and tend to concede goals, setting up a match with ample scoring opportunities on both ends. Belgium’s attacking consistency at home, coupled with Italy’s recent strong performances, suggests an open and competitive game.

While Italy’s edge in scoring this season might give them a slight advantage, Belgium’s home crowd and offensive power could make this an evenly contested battle.

BetMines precits that Both teams will score.