The program for Matchday 4 of the Europa League offers, at Stadion Galgenwaard, a clash that promises to be decisive for the European ambitions of Utrecht and Porto. The home side, still stuck at zero points after the first three matches, are desperately seeking their first win of their European campaign. Only a victory would allow Ron Jans’ team to keep their qualification hopes alive, aiming at least for the 24th spot, the last one that grants access to the Round of 32. A goal far from simple for the current sixth-placed team in the Eredivisie, who will have to face a top-level opponent. On the other side, Porto arrive as leaders of the Liga Portugal with six points in their Europa League group. Francesco Farioli’s men are enjoying a very positive run, but they cannot afford any slip-ups in the race for the top eight, which guarantees direct qualification for the Round of 16. For the Italian coach, returning to the Netherlands — where he came close to winning the title last season with Ajax — is an extra source of motivation. The goal is clear: return home with three points to approach the rest of the European journey with more serenity and without sacrificing too much energy in the domestic league. A crucial match, therefore, for both sides: Utrecht need a win to stay alive and avoid saying goodbye to Europe after just four matchdays, while Porto aim to take a decisive step toward qualification and confirm their excellent form.

Utrecht's recent form and key stats

In their last Eredivisie match on November 2, Utrecht returned to winning ways after two consecutive defeats, beating Nijmegen 1-0 thanks to a goal from Miguel Rodriguez. However, the overall situation remains delicate: in their last five matches, they’ve collected 2 wins and 3 losses, with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, showing clear defensive weaknesses.

Their Europa League campaign has been disastrous: 0 points from three defeats against Olympique Lyon, Brann, and Freiburg. Utrecht are the only team yet to score a single goal in the first three rounds of the UEL, while conceding an average of 1.33 goals per game.

Their home form is also worrying: Jans’ team have lost seven of their last ten home matches across all competitions, completing the record with two wins and one draw. To make matters worse, the possible absence of attacking midfielder Victor Jensen — one of Utrecht’s most talented players and already on 8 goals this season — could further complicate things against Porto.

Porto's recent form and key stats

Good moment for Porto, who are coming off two consecutive league wins against Moreirense (1-2) and Sporting Braga (2-1). Farioli’s men have lost only one of their last 15 matches across all competitions, winning 12 of their last 14. A team that, under the Italian coach, seems to have finally regained tactical balance after some disappointing seasons.

The Dragões have so far collected 6 points in the Europa League, thanks to 2 wins and 1 loss, with an average of 1 goal scored and 1 conceded per game. Their only defeat came on October 23, when they lost 2-0 away at Nottingham Forest. A win in the Netherlands would represent a major step toward the top 8, ensuring direct qualification for the Round of 16.

Playing away from home is not a problem for the Portuguese side, who have won seven of their last eight away games in all competitions, keeping a clean sheet in five of them. Ahead of the match against Utrecht, there are doubts over the availability of defender Nehuen Perez and striker Luuk De Jong, who arrived this summer from PSV.

Utrecht vs Porto Prediction by BetMines

Based on performances so far, both in Europe and domestically, BetMines predicts a one-sided match with Porto as clear favorites to win. According to the algorithm, an away win (2) has a 47% probability, while the home victory does not exceed 29%.

Farioli’s team are showing great solidity even away from the Estádio do Dragão, relying on a well-organized defense and an attacking unit capable of scoring consistently on the road. In contrast, the Dutch side are struggling to find balance at home, having conceded at least one goal in four of their last five matches at Stadion Galgenwaard.

Needing a result to chase their first European win, the home side will be forced to play more aggressively — which could open up spaces for the Portuguese to exploit on the counterattack. The Dragões, in fact, have already scored at least two goals in six of their eight official away games this season, confirming the strong attacking efficiency of Farioli’s squad.

For these reasons, BetMines tips are Over 2.5 goals and “Both teams to score”, estimated at 56% and 57% probability respectively. Two players to watch: Miguel Rodríguez, who has scored twice in his last four appearances, and Aghehowa, with 9 goals in 12 matches this season.

Probable lineups Utrecht vs Porto

UTRECHT (4-3-3): Barkas; Horemans, Didden, Viergever, El Karouani; Engwanda, Zechiel, Bozdogan; Rodriguez, Haller, Blake. Coach: Jans

PORTO (4-3-3): D. Costa; A. Costa, Bednarek, Kiwior, Moura; Froholdt, Varela, Rosario; Sainz, Aghehowa, Pepe. Coach: Farioli