The third round of the Brazilian Serie A brings an intriguing clash between Vasco da Gama and Bahia, two sides with contrasting starts to the season. The match is scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, at 21:30 (Brasília time), at São Januário. The home team seeks its first league win, while the visitors aim to extend their unbeaten run and stay among the early leaders.

Vasco da Gama’s Recent Form and Key Stats

After a morale-boosting 2-0 victory over Botafogo in the state championship, Vasco da Gama now turns its focus back to the national stage. The team’s Serie A campaign has started slowly, with one draw and one defeat so far. In their opening match, Vasco lost 2-1 away to Mirassol despite taking an early lead, and then drew 1-1 at home against Chapecoense. These results leave them in 14th place with a single point.

Despite the modest start, recent performances show signs of improvement. In their last five matches across all competitions, Vasco have recorded two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game. Their defensive organization has been solid, and the team has shown consistency in attack, scoring in most of their recent outings. In fact, over 1.5 goals have been scored in 25 of their last 26 Serie A matches, and over 0.5 goals in the second half have occurred in each of their last 14 league games.

At home, São Januário has been a reliable ground for goals. Vasco’s last 12 home matches in Serie A have all featured at least two goals, and the team has scored in nearly all of them. The fans will expect another strong attacking display, especially after the confidence gained from the recent derby win. However, the team still needs to tighten up defensively, having conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game in the league so far.

Bahia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Bahia arrive in Rio de Janeiro unbeaten in the league and full of confidence. The team opened their Serie A campaign with an impressive 2-1 comeback win away to Corinthians, followed by a 1-1 draw at home against Fluminense. With four points from two matches, Bahia currently sit in 7th place, just outside the top four.

In their last five matches in all competitions, Bahia have achieved two wins, two draws, and one defeat, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Their attack has been efficient, while the defense, though generally solid, has shown some vulnerability away from home. Indeed, at least one goal has been conceded by Bahia in each of their last 13 away matches, and over 1.5 goals have been scored in all of those games. This trend suggests that their matches tend to be open and entertaining, with both teams often finding the net.

Bahia’s away form has been particularly noteworthy for its attacking intent. The team has managed to score in nearly every away fixture, and their offensive balance has been one of their main strengths. However, maintaining defensive discipline will be crucial against a Vasco side that tends to perform better at home and is eager to secure its first league win.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The historical record between Vasco da Gama and Bahia is quite balanced. In their last five meetings, each side has won twice, with one draw. The most recent encounter ended 1-0 in favor of Bahia on November 23, 2025. Across those games, Vasco have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, highlighting how evenly matched these teams have been in recent years.

From a tactical perspective, Vasco will likely rely on their home advantage and attacking rhythm, while Bahia may look to exploit spaces on the counterattack. Both teams have shown a tendency toward matches with multiple goals, and given their current form, another open contest could be on the cards. The home side’s challenge will be to convert possession into goals, while Bahia’s focus will be on maintaining their unbeaten streak and capitalizing on defensive lapses.

Considering the statistics, both teams to score appears a realistic scenario, as Vasco have been consistent in finding the net at home, and Bahia rarely leave the pitch without scoring. However, the visitors’ defensive fragility could also play into Vasco’s hands, making this a finely balanced encounter.

Probable Lineups Vasco da Gama vs Bahia

VASCO DA GAMA: Léo Jardim; Paulo Henrique, Carlos Cuesta, Robert Renan, Lucas Piton (Cuiabano); Cauan Barros, Thiago Mendes, Coutinho; Nuno Moreira, Andrés Gómez, Brenner.
BAHIA: Gilberto; David Duarte, Santiago Ramos, Luciano Juba; Acevedo, Jean Lucas, Éverton Ribeiro; Ademir, Erick Pulga, Willian José.

Vasco da Gama vs Bahia Prediction and Final Analysis

This fixture promises to be a competitive and entertaining battle between two teams with different objectives but similar momentum. Vasco da Gama will count on their home crowd and recent confidence boost, while Bahia will aim to extend their unbeaten run and prove their consistency on the road. The statistics suggest a tight match with goals at both ends, but Bahia’s slightly better balance between attack and defense could give them a marginal edge.

Given the current form and head-to-head record, a draw or a narrow away win seems the most plausible outcome. Both sides have shown attacking potential, and the match could hinge on small details or individual brilliance in the final third.

Vasco da Gama vs Bahia prediction from BetMines: Draw (X) with 27% probability.